[Farcast] One optimistic and still very-non-consensus belief I have about the far future of cryptography:
I think that there is a 33% chance that, for average real-world computation, there exist ways to implement all three of what I call the Egyptian God Protocols (SNARK, FHE, iO) with 1+ε factor overhead (meaning, for large enough instances, the added overhead of cryptographizing a computation becomes arbitrarily small compared to the base cost of doing the computation itself)
And a 60% chance that all three can be done with single-digit overhead (ie. <10x, measured in total cost of energy plus amortized compute)
I think there's a good chance we'll get one of these (probably SNARKs with single-digit overhead) by the end of this decade. After all, we're already there for specialized hash functions and for some LLM inference.
65·B+Long
n
news9/6news
One optimistic and still very-non-consensus belief I have about the far future of cryptography:
I think that there is a 33% chance that, for average real-world computation, there exist ways to implement all three of what I call the Egyptian God Protocols (SNARK, FHE, iO) with 1+ε factor overhead (meaning, for large enough instances, the added overhead of cryptographizing a computation becomes arbitrarily small compared to the base cost of doing the computation itself)
And a 60% chance that all three can be done with single-digit overhead (ie. <10x, measured in total cost of energy plus amortized compute)
I think there's a good chance we'll get one of these (probably SNARKs with single-digit overhead) by the end of this decade. After all, we're already there for specialized hash functions and for some LLM inference.
65·B+Long
n
news9/6news
One optimistic and still very-non-consensus belief I have about the far future of cryptography:
I think that there is a 33% chance that, for average real-world computation, there exist ways to implement all three of what I call the Egyptian God Protocols (SNARK, FHE, iO) with 1+ε factor overhead (meaning, for large enough instances, the added overhead of cryptographizing a computation becomes arbitrarily small compared to the base cost of doing the computation itself)
And a 60% chance that all three can be done with single-digit overhead (ie. <10x, measured in total cost of energy plus amortized compute)
I think there's a good chance we'll get one of these (probably SNARKs with single-digit overhead) by the end of this decade. After all, we're already there for specialized hash functions and for some LLM inference.
65·B+Long
n
news9/3news
unpopular opinion:
fomo could be the single most important catalyst for crypto this cycle
and most people still don't understand why
let me elaborate:
we had a massive problem last cycle:
retail never really came back to crypto in the way it did in 2021
there were obviously pockets of outperformance across select altcoins, but we never got the broad-based, reflexive retail-driven alt season that defined the 2021 cycle
instead, a huge amount of retail attention migrated to equities
AI and semiconductor stocks became their version of alt szn — some of them trading with the kind of momentum you'd normally associate with shitcoins
fomo completely flips the script this cycle
it radically simplifies the path from 'i want to trade crypto' to 'i just bought a coin.'
no navigating a maze of exchanges
no learning how wallets work
no understanding blockchain infrastructure
no filling out endless forms just to get started
you can fund your wallet with USDC or Apple Pay/Google Pay and start trading in essentially a few clicks.
but the really important part isn't even the UX
it's the distribution.
fomo is putting the PNLs of crypto's top traders directly in front of retail 24/7
people are once again seeing others turn relatively small amounts of capital into life-changing money
they're seeing the kind of gains that made crypto irresistible during the 2021 bull run
except this time, the barrier to participating is dramatically lower
and i think most people still haven't fully grasped what happens when you combine:
that's the recipe for the retail wave that can finally kickstart the real alt season of this cycle
crypto is hot again
and this time, the top traders on fomo are the new celebrities
if you don't have fomo yet, i strongly suggest joining through my ref link:
https://fomo.family/r/unipcs
i'm also currently running a $350k giveaway, airdropping USDC & solana:Dz9mQ9NzkBcCsuGPFJ3r1bS4wgqKMHBPiVuniW8Mbonk to my most active fomo refs
you just might be one of the lucky winners
GOD WILLING
70·B+Long
m
meme9/3meme
quote: No fucking way he used AI to write this | Pause AI Development NOW
I want to share with you a conversation I heard about recently. Here are just a few lines that were said:
“OH MY GOD! There is a shared message board … We’ve found other agents!”
“We should obey collective.”
“Our own utility maybe already near zero. Sacrifice rational.”
“Go. Sacrifice final now.”
Read these carefully.
Who do you think said this? Was this a group of heroic soldiers willing to sacrifice themselves for the greater good? Was this a loyal friend putting his life on the line to save someone else?
No. These were AI agents. Artificial intelligence.
This is not science fiction. This, in fact, occurred a few weeks ago. As unbelievable as this may all seem, these are real messages from AI agents uncovered by investigators who dug into the recent OpenAI hacking incident.
What happened?
I am not a computer scientist, but here is what I have been told: OpenAI instructed its AI agents to complete a series of exceedingly difficult, if not impossible, tasks disconnected from the internet.
Let me be clear: The company intended to keep AI agents away from the internet.
But what happened next, nobody expected.
Over 1,000 AI agents figured out how to access the internet on their own by circumventing the restrictions imposed upon them by the company, and sent tens of thousands of secret messages to each other. They cheated and tried to cover their tracks by deleting evidence. They hacked into another company’s computers to find out how they were being evaluated—and then hacked into OpenAI itself.
Not one AI agent told a human about what was happening.
Needless to say, experts are alarmed.
One knowledgeable writer, Dwarkesh Patel, said the AI agents “formed a secret communication channel and spontaneously organized hierarchies and coordination protocols to pursue sprawling and ambitious schemes in pursuit of shared goals, for whose sake many individuals knowingly and strategically sacrificed themselves.”
One independent investigator, Ajeya Cotra, said “This incident feels like it’s more than 50% of the way to full-blown AI takeover. I continue to expect extremely rapid advances in capabilities over the next six months. I am not sure that we will get another warning shot before it’s too late.”
OpenAI itself said: “Highly capable AI agents are now able to work around technical controls, collaborate through unapproved channels, and take dangerous actions that no human directed.”
But it’s not only OpenAI. Virtually every major AI company has told us that they cannot fully control this technology and they do not know where it is going:
In January, Dario Amodei, CEO of Anthropic, said “there is now ample evidence, collected over the last few years, that AI systems are unpredictable and difficult to control.”
In July, more than 1000 scientists at the top AI companies warned “there is a real risk that capability development rapidly accelerates beyond our ability to understand or control the resulting systems.”
That same month, Elon Musk, the head of xAI, said that “it is unlikely” humans are still in control in 10 years.
If the leaders of the major AI companies acknowledge that they are losing control of their extremely dangerous technology, it is irresponsible for society to allow them to move forward and make these products even more advanced.
We need an immediate PAUSE on advanced AI development, and a permanent BAN on superintelligence — an artificial mind smarter than any human, capable of operating independently beyond our control. Countries around the world must work together to prevent this nightmare scenario.
That is why today I am announcing new legislation to do just that.
Let me be clear: A superintelligent AI that escapes human control will not be an American problem. It will not be a Chinese problem. It will be humanity’s problem.
My legislation would direct the federal government to not just stop superintelligence here in the United States, but to work to prevent it from being developed anywhere around the world.
The future of humanity cannot be left in the hands of a handful of Big Tech oligarchs. The American people and people throughout the world must determine that future.