OVERTRADING

October 10, 2025

i had what would become the single biggest one-day loss of my career

i lost eight figures in minutes due to systemic failures on the biggest CEXs, and to this day, no one has taken accountability for what happened

my losses made headlines and became one of the biggest stories to come out of that day

but what many people don't know is what happened in the weeks and months that followed

i lost several million more

and i did it by making one of the biggest mistakes traders like me tend to make:

OVERTRADING

in hindsight, i would have been far better off shutting everything down for the next few months or even quarters

i probably would have become a much better trader if i had simply stayed away from the computer for at least six months

but a part of me was desperate for action

a part of me wanted to make it all back

a part of me wanted to prove that i still had what it takes and that i would get back on my feet

i wanted to 'work'

and sitting back, doing nothing, and staying away from the computer for a prolonged period didn't feel like work

except that, for a trader, being AFK can sometimes be the most important work you do

one of the biggest mistakes i made — and that many traders make — is assuming that skill, experience, and process are enough to consistently outperform the market

they aren't

believe it or not, successful trading is often a combination of skill, favorable market conditions, timing, and luck

as a Christian, i attribute the 'luck' component to GOD's blessings and favor rather than sheer luck

but the underlying principle remains the same:

our biggest wins often come from combining a solid process with being in the right place at the right time

sometimes, that means catching a single exceptional trade

other times, it means being positioned during a streak of opportunities that emerge in quick succession because market conditions are overwhelmingly in your favor

for example, you could have been a memecoin god simply by being active in the market during the explosive memecoin era of 2021, which produced $DOGE, $SHIB, $FLOKI, and several other billion-dollar runners

many traders made life-changing money during that period

but the same sophisticated processes that helped some of us make 7, 8, or even 9 figures during the bull market would have failed miserably in the bear market that followed in 2022

the same principle applies to the 2024–early 2025 era, which produced several multibillion-dollar runners like $WIF, $POPCAT, and $FARTCOIN

and then the prolonged dearth of opportunities after $TRUMP leading to 10/10 and the almost one-year period following

the point is simple:

the edge that makes you money in one market environment won't necessarily make you money in another

and one of the most important skills you can develop as a trader is recognizing when your edge is no longer there

sometimes, the best trade is no trade at all

sometimes, the smartest thing you can do is take a bow, step away, and wait for the next opportunity

even if only temporarily

it's almost impossible to consistently beat the market over a sufficiently long timeframe

but as crypto traders, we have one significant advantage:

we don't need to outperform the market every single day, week, or month to generate exceptional returns

historically, crypto's bull phases have tended to occupy a disproportionate share of the cycle, with bear phases accounting for a smaller portion

using one historical framework, the bull phase averages approximately 1,060 days, or 74% of the cycle, while the bear phase averages around 380 days, or 26%

but if your definition of a bull run is narrower — i.e. a period of explosive momentum when $BTC trades above its 200-day moving average and much of the cycle's biggest price action occurs — then the window becomes significantly shorter

under that framework, we're talking about approximately 237 days, or around 16% of the cycle

these figures are estimates based on particular definitions of market phases, not universal constants

but the broader lesson remains:

you don't need to trade every market. you need to recognize the windows when your edge is strongest and capitalize on them

for the rest of the time, there's nothing wrong with stepping away entirely or trading only with a tiny fraction of your portfolio that you can comfortably afford to lose

preserving your capital, your mental clarity, and your ability to recognize the next major opportunity is far more important than forcing trades in unfavorable conditions

because the goal isn't to be active all the time

the goal is to be positioned when it matters most

and to have the discipline to do nothing when it doesn't

to conclude, i only wish i had followed this advice myself

hopefully, i'll do a better job of applying it going forward, GOD WILLING