Strait of Hormuz over the last 24 hours: Oman lane is dead.
Visible traffic continues to be nonexistent in the Oman lane, but the Iranians reported that 3 vessels attempted to transit with US escorts only to have one get attacked. The other 2 turned around.
With the Bab al-Mandeb closure now in force by the Houthis, Fujairah enforcement is the most likely next escalation path.
Despite tankers being attacked during their transits through the Oman lane, some brave shipowners and captains are still trying, which means the enforcement has to go to the root cause: Fujairah.
I guess we will see where this is all going, but from an oil math standpoint, this is the endgame now.
Video is from @MarineTraffic
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Strait of Hormuz over the last 72 hours: escalation continues.
Visible vessel traffic fell off a cliff. Only the Iran lane has vessels with AIS on, nothing in the Oman lane. We know there were still transits because UKMTO reported vessels being attacked and IRGC said 4 vessels were attacked yesterday. One tanker, Kavomaleas, was hit and caught on fire. You can see that in the video time-lapse.
The Oman lane will remain heavily contested. Bloomberg reported that tanker owners are offering 6 months' worth of pay if the crews make the voyage in and out of the Strait of Hormuz. How much is your life worth?
I guess we will see how long this continues, but what's obvious is that this conflict remains all-or-nothing.
Video from @MarineTraffic