gn tweet 1. Vulnerabilities, Cybersecurity and old tokens: ethereum:0x9e46a38f5daabe8683e10793b06749eef7d733d1 Knowing my fiery passion about being max long cybersecurity, a few good ppl brought this to my attention in a gc as essentially the only viable exposure in crypto (one could argue XMR is also one), with a real business (@PolySwarm) and old token = gud token as of these times. I do not disagree, however, the value accrual of NCT is very flebile, it's mostly a reward token and there's virtually no liquidity on DEXs (although coinbase + upbit august listing makes up for a good potential pump I guess). I even went as far as joining their discord to check out if there's any plan for the token but i didn't see anything. Should this change, this is a max bid, before then, it can be mostly a very illiquid narrative play. 2. ethereum:0x0d8775f648430679a709e98d2b0cb6250d2887ef Roadmap 4.0 When i first started pointing out about BAT, i ended up having a lot of side conversation (well, mostly about the first pump). My position didn't really change: this is going to be one of the liquid plays with most potential for this quarter / q1, as Brave 4.0 slowly rolls out. It's going to take some time, but a decent execution on Pay + Wallet + Rewards, not even a good one, is going to have a big impact. Especially if actions follow words, re-establishing alignment between the product and the token will really go far. Brave is one of the most used browsers and it's very liked, if the token manages to become a half-decent way of expressing a directional belief on the product, it's going to be good. One thing i cautioned about is sudden price pumps, i do believe that here a slow up-build in price will be much healthier than a sudden repricing (as in, i think it can lead to far higher end results, vs jigsaw) and that's why should i wake up one day with BAT up 50% in 24h, i'll surely tp, just like i'll buy dips at relevant levels if it goes down significantly. 3. Prediction Markets noise, Defillama's distribution: base:0x21cfcfc3d8f98fc728f48341d10ad8283f6eb7ab This is maybe an interesting one: - @llamaonthebrink is a good lad; - @DefiLlama integration of Trueo ups its distribution by a lot and makes it really interesting - there is a lot of talk about and around Prediction Markets (again) mainly due to Polymarket's insider manuvers over the control of the company - Trueo is still trading at a fraction of competition (i'm not even talking about Kalshi/Polymarket, i'm talking about the C-tier ones) Again, very illiquid token, but i think here the chances of a good pump outweights the risk (capped to -100% afterall). I'm long. 4. Extra collection of thoughts: ethereum:0x6e2a43be0b1d33b726f0ca3b8de60b3482b8b050 , $XTEN, ethereum:0x88800092ff476844f74dc2fc427974bbee2794ae These are some tickers that i looked into for miscellaneous reasons. Starting from the first... - $XTEN / Extended, they migrated to Arc and announced the upcoming token in November, with 30% earmarked for the airdrop. I do not have much to say about this yet, i've had a rollercoaster of a relationship with Extended as i went from being very bullish and heavily using it at the beginning (very painful UX back then), to be quite more skeptical (the relationship with Revolut being constantly flaunted around, the eToro tease that later on materialized, the spreads, liquidity and funding not improving), to be once again more positive. I've disposed of a chunk of my points OTC, and at the moment Polymarket is not too bullish on Extended upcoming valuation (>$300m is merely 35%) and i do expect a massive dump of airdrop tokens, however, should it really go low low, i may be a buyer once the avalanche sets in. The team did have some good execution on the two migrations, the Arc positioning is not bad (and probably came with financial strings attached) and the European distribution is not bad either (and i'm very bullish on distribution as a moat, even more than product often). - ethereum:0x6e2a43be0b1d33b726f0ca3b8de60b3482b8b050 / Arkham, one of the most used non-trading platforms in crypto, recently announced their Enterprise plans and essentially the sunset of the free-for-all games. Very understandable as they probably have massive infrastructural expenses and they need to somewhat monetize, with plans for side monetization (via perps) having failed. The struggle here is that the token has no value accrual, the team needs funding (and therefore will probably keep dumping) and i'm not sure i see an easy pathway for Arkham to sustainability (and even value accrual) that doesn't pass by essentially becoming a fed platform (but for real). Regardless, i don't hate the chart, it has been going horizontal for a while, and i'm gonna take a small punt here. Things are moving (re: monetization) and while i doubt that this will bring a lot of money to the platform, changes can be a positive signal compared to stagnation. I'm ready to close should it not play out. - ethereum:0x88800092ff476844f74dc2fc427974bbee2794ae / Ambire, here i'm more looking for opinion as i read more and more positive opinions about Ambire, but essentially after trying it a little bit (admittedly not much) i didn't notice particular UX improvements over Rabby and i see way too much bullishness on CT. This clearly means that i'm missing something (it may even just be a round eh), what is it? Last week i've also closed filecoin:native at a loss, unfortunately the market didn't care of the end of the unlocks. 5. Options: ethereum:0x232ce3bd40fcd6f80f3d55a522d03f25df784ee2 beyond binaries, ethereum:0xb32e10022ffbedfe10bc818a1c7e67d9d87e0fa7 Post-S3 I'm not sure how much push options can really get in crypto, sometimes i do use them, but i'm definitely more of a perp enjoyooor. Undoubtedly though, people do like options. And undoubtedly, the adoption of options (which has been touted at least 8 or more times in the cycles i've been in) is underpriced. We always talked in the past about ethereum:0xb1d1eae60eea9525032a6dcb4c1ce336a1de71be which is great. However, i'm trying to also look beyond that, because it had a crazy run and it needs to probably rest a bit (or maybe it already rested enough, it's been a while it didn't have some crazy volatility), but anyway running some more ideas. Lighter's binaries are - i think - of none's interest. It's essentially prediction market stuff. However, what's interesting is real uncapped options, especially if they can get a hold of a bit of the RH cohort of degens. It increasingly (and predictably) looks like RH is just going fully in-house for the most important stuff (eh surprise), but still, the Lighter connection is indeed there, and they may want to help pump their bags somehow. The other token is ethereum:0xb32e10022ffbedfe10bc818a1c7e67d9d87e0fa7 from Paradex. I've already expressed my thoughts on both the team, the execution and the product so i won't repeat myself. It's a matter of fact that they're one of the largest venues for options. Yes, it's a fraction of Derive's volume and fees, and yes DIME is already trading at a premium for that fraction. However, their S3 is over but rewards not yet distributed, and i think this token can belong to the trio of tickers to keep an eye on for options expansion, with potentially good entries after S3 airdrop comes (and gets jeeted on a paperthin liquidity). 6. AI Plays: is the music slowing? Obviously cracks are showing up everywhere in TradFi and even Anthropic seems to be accelerating their IPO plans (or just keen on executing them on time). This obviously affects what happens onchain too (a little bit) with AI runners being very colder compared to what they would have been a few months ago (let alone in late 2024 / early 2025). Both the tickers indicated in the title enjoyed already some bumpy upside, and while i managed to only play a little bit of the first, i captured a good bounce on the second. I trimmed both my ORBIO and SURPLUS bags, but there are also reasons to be positive: both platforms are liked and used, surplus is transitioning from a full-blown meme with the team having near to no stake in to a real (still memetic, in terms of value accrual) token that the team will be able to jeet (and will have an interest in pumping). It's probably for the best that surplus gets transitioned via supply expansion in a real token rather than just dismissed in favor of a new launch. Essentially these are not really huge plays for me, but they're the small tokens i like the most in this corner of the market. There's also a lot of talk about Phala recently, but i didn't make it in time to dig in before the market puked the latest news on the chart, so i'll check in some more in the next days. 7. $MSTR back at 1.16x Now, this is a dangerous game, because mNAV = 1.16x is high for recent times, but we know very well it's not high by average historical standards - at all. And being moderately bullish BTC these days, it's maybe not that easy of a play. However, i'm comfortable to start shorting the premium again here. If i'm wrong, i'll lose money, so what. I think the DAT narrative is completely cooked for good, and while there'll always be cycles of booms and busts for stuff like MSTR, i do think historical averages for mNAV premium shouldn't be regarded as reliable point of reference, but rather a much more compressed level of this. We can add the fact that MSTR is set to be delisted at the end of November (final list on 11 November and implementation on the 30th), with MSCI funds holding around $1.9b of stocks they'll have to dump. 8. Short side: near:native and ripple:native what's below the line I don't remember a single trade i won when me and hedgehog were publicly on the same trade, however, i'm indeed short NEAR (again). I think the narrative is gone, the ZEC correlation is cold, the pump was mostly fugazi and the token tried to break 4.6$ already like... 7 or 8 times? There's the abyss below that and i think this time it'll get it. Similar story for XRP, i think this is still on its way to 0.5/7s, it's just going to be more of a rollercoaster, but every cycle is the same and this won't be different. Yes FDV is a meme when the token is much less liquid, yes there's also a lot of XRP used as collateral at Maple and other insti lending platforms and desks, but yes, XRP will slowly grind down back to square 2 imo. It's not always easy to find longs to hedge these kind of plays, aside from BTC and maybe ETH... HYPE has been a good one so far, but right now it's going through some weakness (ig increased competition, some fears that the airdrop is actually going to happen, papertrade burning a bit of the attention around the ecosystem -> people let it rest for a while). 9. Old/new lessons: initia:native Just a small note for frens, this is an easy lesson to learn but also an easy lesson to forget, and everybody always do this. On hacks, you short first, then you get out of the door fast and you do not play it right away again. This is not necessarily true on tokens that are large, liquid and crowded (see zcash:native, you could be very late at the short when they found the first privacy pool vulnerability, and be profitable), but it's always always true for small illiquid tokens. Here it's not even a given that the token will dump, although it's easier for it to dump on perps at least. Squeezing the late shorters becomes a much easier achievement for people who want, when the supply is already cornered enough or simply just illiquid. Be early, leave early. Sometimes you get another chance later on, when the jigsaw of liquidations is over. As always, have a good night Retweeted by @thedefivillain from @0xGeeGee