CTAs Are Sellers In Every Scenario Next Week... And A Massive $185 Billion If Stocks Slide Next Month https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ctas-are-sellers-every-scenario-next-week-and-massive-185-billion-if-stocks-drop-next-month
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@bgurley they also wouldn’t exist without the common crawl and hundreds of millions of creators that they would not have compensated at all were it not for a lawsuit.
not to mention many other papers in deep learning, etc.
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UK Cities Roll Out More Diversity Barriers; Vehicle-Ramming Threat Now The Norm https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/uk-cities-roll-out-more-diversity-barriers-vehicle-ramming-threat-now-norm
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quote: Just an innocent little error folks https://x.com/govsherrillnj/status/2079602942722662725 | Last week I learned that a serious software error in New Jersey’s Motor Vehicle System led to the registration of roughly 6,600 people who indicated that they were not U.S. citizens between June 2023 and June 2024, almost three years prior to my taking office. These individuals answered "no" when asked on a keypad whether they were a U.S. citizen when applying for drivers' licenses and identification cards, but through no fault of their own, the system registered them anyway.
This happened under the previous administration and, upon learning this information, I immediately ordered my chief counsel to launch an investigation to get to the bottom of what occurred. I also ordered the removal of any residents from our voter rolls who were erroneously added between June 2023 and June 2024. The new MVC Administrator that I appointed has begun the process of replacing the vendor responsible for administering the system.
Our preliminary analysis shows fewer than 400 individuals who were newly registered for the first time because of the error voted. They were registered as Democrats, Republicans and Unaffiliated voters and were scattered across the state.
I want to underscore how seriously I take this matter. As a military veteran who swore an oath to defend our Constitution, and as a former federal prosecutor, I believe the integrity of our elections is fundamental to our democracy. I am appalled by the reckless failures that allowed this to happen and the lack of transparency shown by those in charge at the time. This failure didn’t occur under my watch, but accountability starts now. I am taking action to prevent anything like it from occurring in the future and make sure those responsible are held accountable.
As the Trump Administration tries to weaponize elections for political gain, I am ensuring we protect our elections. Let me be clear: Donald Trump has zero credibility on the issue of election integrity. For more than ten years, he has worked to undermine Americans' faith in our elections by spreading lies about legitimate election results, attempting to overturn a free and fair election, encouraging an attack on our Capitol when he couldn't accept the will of the voters, and defunding election security at the federal level.
The difference is simple: when we find a problem, we don't hide it, deny it, or invent conspiracies. We investigate it, we fix it, and we tell the public. That's what accountability and good governance look like, and that's exactly what my administration is doing.
New Jerseyans should have confidence that every eligible citizen can vote, every lawful vote will be counted, and every reasonable step will be taken to protect the integrity of our elections. That's my responsibility, and it's one I will never stop fighting to uphold.
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quote: havent seen one person from OAI or Ant address Jon's argument here.
the point is simple: the USG does not owe either of the large labs a business model. if the economics of selling tokens don't work due to distillation/cheap clones/Chinese AI magick, the American enterprise and consumer will be A-OK. they will benefit from hyperdeflation in the cost of digital cognition just like everyone else. the hyperscalers will be fine. it's just OAI and Ant that won't be – in their current forms at least. if they are willing to adapt, they can develop new business models.
so what if the token merchants don't do well? the neoclouds will be fine. the internet companies will be fine. the consumer gets cheaper queries. the enterprise will still incorporate AI.
the only world in which this isn't fine, is if you hold a quasi-religious belief that we're on the cusp of a kind of AI rapture in which one of the labs Logs On And Wins Forever, namely hits RSI and we enter some kind of sublime post economic society run by GEOTUS Dario. so to accept that Ant's business model might be suboptimal or impaired by China's commoditization is to accept the unacceptable; namely that someone other than the anointed might kick off the runaway feedback loop and that they, instead might log on and win forever.
this appears to explain the discrepancy in reaction to Deepseek Moment v254 Kimi edition. everyone has bag bias, of course. but leaving that aside, most people think it's pretty much ok if Ant and OAI suffer margin compression due to Chinese distillation / industrial sabotage via open weight models. the American economy is not reliant on those two firms. they could blink out of existence and we would pretty much be ok. the AI capex supercycle will still produce tokens, closed weight or not. American firms will consume those tokens. OAI and Ant would probably still scratch a living, due to the latent preference of some token consumers to buy domestic and face off against a known entity.
this is only unacceptable if you think AI is strongly path dependent; that is, if it really matters who the market leader is when AI reaches a breakout level of capability. this is true both in the good case (superintelligence, singularity, etc) and the bad case (this is the essence of safetyism). but if this sounds more like wishcasting than forecasting, you probably don't mind the labs being pressured economically.
now you can clearly tell which side I'm on. I think AI is a fantastic technology which is hyperdeflating the cost of cognition and will fundamentally reshape society but there are real reasons why it wont diffuse as fast as the AGI people think it well. I would prefer an American firm achieve RSI relative to a Chinese one but I think either outcome would be suboptimal; better that we don't end up with a closed oligopoly composed of Ant/OAI. China by crushing the margins of the labs is doing everyone a favor by eliminating their pricing power and empowering the buyers of AI, namely, everyone.
objections:
-but you can't celebrate America losing to China!
- in my opinion this is a minor victory for China but not necessarily an enduring one. USA still has the chip, datacenter, and neocloud advantage, not to mention, it still has the best frontier models. Chinese labs releasing open weight models have no business model of their own. so even if they hurt the US labs, they have nothing to show for it. it's profoundly unlike their successful dumping campaigns with solar panels, batteries, drones, etc where they eventually built big domestic industries. (if China kills American AI with open weight models, we can even the score the moment they try and release a proprietary model). even if open weights win, the USA can still leverage AI extremely well and potentally retain the aggregate compute advantage. yes, the US would be more assured of victory if OAI or Ant won forever, but I don't know if I want to live in that world.
- no one will ever train a model again
- this is where I think the concern is unwarranted. let's say distillation really is a golden bullet and kills big training runs. that doesn't advantage either China or the US. that's a stalemate. not to mention, the trend seems to be less focusing less on massive pretraining budgets and more on finetuning for specific genres of tasks, thinking machines style. and lastly I find it hard to believe that training runs will stop altogether. the labs can probably develop anti-distillation techniques. you could adopt a whitelist style permission for everyone using your model. different consortia could be put together to share in the cost of training a model, if it is seen as too expensive for an individual firm.
- the AI buildout is path dependent and OAI/Ant are now load bearing GDP infrastructure
- it would be a significant setback for investors if they had to cancel their IPOs and suffered big markdowns, and some neoclouds with lab based RPOs would suffer for a while, but everyone would be fine, really. does Microsoft need OAI or Ant? does Meta? does Google? ordinary Americans have ~no exposure to either OAI or Ant. would the world want any less compute if it turns out to be another order of magnitude cheaper? certainly not. as we all know at this point, consumption would go up. I don't think the economy is so dependent on the labs that it couldn't handle their margins compressing. | Look I think I've figured this whole thing out. Follow along as I try to steelman, and tell me where I'm wrong.
OpenAI guys on the TL believe that if they can't sell metered inference tokens at a sufficient markup, then they will not have enough of a business to fund the next big training run.
They are surely correct about this.
They believe that if people release powerful open models, this will probably fatally impact their ability to sell inference tokens at enough of a markup to fund the next big training run.
They are surely correct about this, too.
They also think that if they cannot fund the next big training run (again, by selling inference tokens at a markup), then NOBODY will be able to fund the next big training run because it means there's no money in it.
This last bit seems to me & many others to be not just wrong, but totally bananas in a "guy, have seen the actual software industry and how it works in real life?!" kind of way.
There are a lot of ways to monetize software out there in the world. Insofar as inference can add new capabilities to software, there will be lots of ways to monetize it.
In other words, if you're telling me, "we can't have a business selling inference if X or Y thing keeps happening," then my only response is, "ok well that sucks for you... sounds like that's a terrible business."
But if you're telling me that "selling metered inference tokens is a terrible business" is tantamount to "nobody will fund big training runs that are upstream of more effective & economically valuable inference tokens", then I think you are extremely wrong and should get out more and learn about other parts of the software ecosystem.
Workplace automation is huge and will be even bigger in the future as models get better. You can sell workplace automation very profitably in lots of different packages (depending on the workplace and the type of automation). Like, I'm sorry that you really really want to be in the metered inference token business and not the workplace automation business, but them's the breaks. The market wants what the market wants. We all need to live in reality and not beg for Uncle Sam to save us all from open source -- because that was already tried and it didn't work.
10·CNeutral
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Twitter7/21news
Momentum Is Brewing In Bitcoin https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/momentum-brewing-bitcoin
65·B+Long
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Momentum Is Brewing In Bitcoin https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/momentum-brewing-bitcoin
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there it is - microsoft will use kimi k3 to power their flagship copilot ai assistant saving up to 60% per token or $600M on every $1B spent on inference spend.
if microsoft chooses to self-host the model once Kimi open sources it on the 27th then this cost reduces even more
love or hate these chinese models, open source is really levelling the field in a big way.
per the information