This is an important operational development, but its impact on Iranian policy should not be overstated.

If the reported figures are accurate, there is no question that this represents a significant operational achievement for U.S. Central Command.

But it still needs to be kept in perspective. We are talking about roughly half of Iran’s oil exports, with no gas exports. It is also unclear how much this operation is costing the U.S. government, or how long it can be sustained. This is not a permanent solution.

More importantly, this will not force Iran to surrender or fundamentally change its negotiating position. In fact, if Tehran concludes that the United States is becoming more effective at preventing Iranian tankers from operating while allowing other tankers to cross the Strais, it may respond by escalating elsewhere in order to preserve the economic costs imposed on the international community by disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz.

One thing is clear: Iran is unlikely to accept a situation in which it cannot export oil while other Gulf producers continue to do so. Paradoxically, therefore, America’s relative operational success could become a driver of further Iranian escalation.

Without a return to a negotiated framework, it will be increasingly difficult to prevent that escalation.

#iran

This is an important operational development, but its impact on Iranian policy should not be overstated.

If the reported figures are accurate, there is no question that this represents a significant operational achievement for U.S. Central Command.

But it still needs to be kept in perspective. We are talking about roughly half of Iran’s oil exports, with no gas exports. It is also unclear how much this operation is costing the U.S. government, or how long it can be sustained. This is not a permanent solution.

More importantly, this will not force Iran to surrender or fundamentally change its negotiating position. In fact, if Tehran concludes that the United States is becoming more effective at preventing Iranian tankers from operating while allowing other tankers to cross the Strais, it may respond by escalating elsewhere in order to preserve the economic costs imposed on the international community by disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz.

One thing is clear: Iran is unlikely to accept a situation in which it cannot export oil while other Gulf producers continue to do so. Paradoxically, therefore, America’s relative operational success could become a driver of further Iranian escalation.

Without a return to a negotiated framework, it will be increasingly difficult to prevent that escalation.

#iran

Source:https://twitter.com/barakravid/status/2090220395274146102