The UAE's total trade and financial cutoff of Iran, if enforced, may be the most consequential economic action of this war for Iran. This could be even more significant than the embargo being put on by the United States.

Here's why. The U.S. naval blockade seals the Gulf of Oman and the Persian Gulf, no laden crude carrier has left since July 12. But Dubai–Iran trade moves entirely inside the Persian Gulf, beyond the blockade's line. So basically, Abu Dhabi just closed the inner door the U.S. Navy couldn't reach.

And the UAE is where ~80% of Iran's import FX is procured; hard currency earned overwhelmingly from oil sales to China and global petrochemical sales, converted in Dubai's dirham market.

1/ Here are some stats in this thread:

The UAE's total trade and financial cutoff of Iran, if enforced, may be the most consequential economic action of this war for Iran. This could be even more significant than the embargo being put on by the United States.

Here's why. The U.S. naval blockade seals the Gulf of Oman and the Persian Gulf, no laden crude carrier has left since July 12. But Dubai–Iran trade moves entirely inside the Persian Gulf, beyond the blockade's line. So basically, Abu Dhabi just closed the inner door the U.S. Navy couldn't reach.

And the UAE is where ~80% of Iran's import FX is procured; hard currency earned overwhelmingly from oil sales to China and global petrochemical sales, converted in Dubai's dirham market.

1/ Here are some stats in this thread:

Source:https://twitter.com/laurnorman/status/2090069564230860989