VanEck: Bitcoin May Be Near Accumulation Phase as 8 of 12 Capitulation Signals Trigger

VanEck’s latest report shows that 8 of its 12 tracked Bitcoin market capitulation signals were triggering as of August 12, while all 12 had entered capitulation territory at some point over the past three months. VanEck said Bitcoin’s drawdown from its October 2025 peak has entered its 10th month, suggesting the market may be nearing or already in an accumulation phase; based on historical cycles, a potential turning point could come between September and November.

However, historical backtests show that Bitcoin did not generate significant excess returns in the 3–6 months after similar capitulation signals, outperforming the benchmark only over a one-year horizon, with a limited sample size. Over the past 30 days, BTC held for more than one year fell by about 357,000 BTC to 11.84 million BTC, representing 59.1% of circulating supply; meanwhile, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETPs recorded about $663 million in net inflows, while 30-day realized volatility fell to 27.2%.

VanEck: Bitcoin May Be Near Accumulation Phase as 8 of 12 Capitulation Signals Trigger

VanEck’s latest report shows that 8 of its 12 tracked Bitcoin market capitulation signals were triggering as of August 12, while all 12 had entered capitulation territory at some point over the past three months. VanEck said Bitcoin’s drawdown from its October 2025 peak has entered its 10th month, suggesting the market may be nearing or already in an accumulation phase; based on historical cycles, a potential turning point could come between September and November.

However, historical backtests show that Bitcoin did not generate significant excess returns in the 3–6 months after similar capitulation signals, outperforming the benchmark only over a one-year horizon, with a limited sample size. Over the past 30 days, BTC held for more than one year fell by about 357,000 BTC to 11.84 million BTC, representing 59.1% of circulating supply; meanwhile, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETPs recorded about $663 million in net inflows, while 30-day realized volatility fell to 27.2%.

Source:https://twitter.com/wublockchain/status/2089908890045657303