quote: UBS on $MU: We do believe MU will ultimately buy back a very large amount of stock, but the tone in our meetings around this issue (“gradually”, “over time” to returning 100% excess cash) make us wonder whether investors should keep expectations in check around the timing of any announcement. "On near-term business dynamics, we heard:  (1) MU's latest demand commentary was consistent with recent remarks at an investor conference, citing that demand has strengthened further since earnings. (2) on HBM ASPs, MU confirmed its intention to drive HBM gross margins higher, reflecting HBM's higher value as a product and the fact that existing HBM contracts were signed a long time ago, with pricing effectively lagging the increases in DDR pricing MU provided greater granularity around its goal of 50%+ of revenue under strategic customer agreements (SCAs). Specifically, it expects ~10% of the revenue under SCAs to be sold via take-or-pay agreements without fixed/pre-contracted pricing. Of the remaining 40%, an undisclosed portion will carry fixed pricing while another portion will be sold with bands" | UBS on $MU: "now model MU HBM ASP up ~72% Y/Y (vs. +61% Y/Y prior) along with broadly unchanged MU HBM bit shipments of ~11.65B Gb for C2027. This comes despite changes to $NVDA Rubin Ultra specs, where our checks suggest a first VR300 variant is expected to use 384GB of HBM4 per GPU (8-Hi × 24Gb × 8 × 2 dies), with a subsequent version moving to 512GB of HBM4E per GPU (8-Hi × 32Gb × 8 × 2 dies) around C3Q27 - and the latter being below our previous estimate of 768GB of HBM4E per GPU." "slightly trim estimates in the near-term due to a wider range of potential pricing outcomes for NAND through year-end and into C1H27." "For DRAM, we believe HBM supply/demand has actually tightened with pricing for both HBM4 and HBM4E even stronger than our prior expectations." "Overall HBM consumption for C2027 is actually increasing from 58.7B Gb to 61.5B Gb. We are also getting confirmation that memory suppliers are re-widening the HBM/DDR price premium..."

quote: UBS on $MU: We do believe MU will ultimately buy back a very large amount of stock, but the tone in our meetings around this issue (“gradually”, “over time” to returning 100% excess cash) make us wonder whether investors should keep expectations in check around the timing of any announcement. "On near-term business dynamics, we heard:  (1) MU's latest demand commentary was consistent with recent remarks at an investor conference, citing that demand has strengthened further since earnings. (2) on HBM ASPs, MU confirmed its intention to drive HBM gross margins higher, reflecting HBM's higher value as a product and the fact that existing HBM contracts were signed a long time ago, with pricing effectively lagging the increases in DDR pricing MU provided greater granularity around its goal of 50%+ of revenue under strategic customer agreements (SCAs). Specifically, it expects ~10% of the revenue under SCAs to be sold via take-or-pay agreements without fixed/pre-contracted pricing. Of the remaining 40%, an undisclosed portion will carry fixed pricing while another portion will be sold with bands" | UBS on $MU: "now model MU HBM ASP up ~72% Y/Y (vs. +61% Y/Y prior) along with broadly unchanged MU HBM bit shipments of ~11.65B Gb for C2027. This comes despite changes to $NVDA Rubin Ultra specs, where our checks suggest a first VR300 variant is expected to use 384GB of HBM4 per GPU (8-Hi × 24Gb × 8 × 2 dies), with a subsequent version moving to 512GB of HBM4E per GPU (8-Hi × 32Gb × 8 × 2 dies) around C3Q27 - and the latter being below our previous estimate of 768GB of HBM4E per GPU." "slightly trim estimates in the near-term due to a wider range of potential pricing outcomes for NAND through year-end and into C1H27." "For DRAM, we believe HBM supply/demand has actually tightened with pricing for both HBM4 and HBM4E even stronger than our prior expectations." "Overall HBM consumption for C2027 is actually increasing from 58.7B Gb to 61.5B Gb. We are also getting confirmation that memory suppliers are re-widening the HBM/DDR price premium..."

Source:https://x.com/sean_________/status/2089535138078085578