musk looked at samsung, tsmc and micron's combined output and said even that's not enough for what he's building.

$MU trades at 6x forward. sector median is 30x.

that gap is one belief: "memory is cyclical." the entire bull case is that HBM broke the cycle, contracted supply, 3 players, no new entrants.

if that's right, this rerates 3x on multiple expansion alone. no earnings growth required.

and ppl gloss over terafab making its own memory. when the world's most aggressive builder decides to enter a 3-player oligopoly from scratch, that tells you where the bottleneck is.

musk looked at samsung, tsmc and micron's combined output and said even that's not enough for what he's building.

$MU trades at 6x forward. sector median is 30x.

that gap is one belief: "memory is cyclical." the entire bull case is that HBM broke the cycle, contracted supply, 3 players, no new entrants.

if that's right, this rerates 3x on multiple expansion alone. no earnings growth required.

and ppl gloss over terafab making its own memory. when the world's most aggressive builder decides to enter a 3-player oligopoly from scratch, that tells you where the bottleneck is.

Source:https://twitter.com/bluntz_capital/status/2089486618638127310