《GF Securities Overseas Electronics Newsletter》 ☄ Intel (INTC, Buy): Equity Offering Signals Confidence, Foundry and EMIB Continue to Advance ☀ Reiterate Buy and $136 target price: We view this equity offering as sending a positive signal. The CEO’s direct subscription demonstrates confidence, and it also reflects the smooth progress of the foundry business. We expect the foundry business to reach breakeven (BEP) in 4Q27, with margin leverage kicking in fully in 2028. Yields and external customer acquisition (particularly Apple) are progressing solidly, and the EMIB customer base is also expanding (Google and AWS). Intel has secured support from substrate (carrier) supplier Unimicron, and will produce silicon capacitors internally. We raise our 2026E/2027E EPS estimates by 3%/1% respectively and maintain our $136 target price, factoring in dilution. ☀ The equity offering sends a positive signal: Intel upsized the offering from an initial $15bn to $20bn, and institutional demand reportedly exceeded $100bn. The offering price was $95, and the overallotment option (greenshoe) was fully exercised. CEO Lip-Bu Tan and his family subscribed for roughly $12mn at the offering price, which we read as a signal of management’s confidence in the company, and which should also support FY27 capex. ☀ A solid EMIB customer base drives the foundry business further: Intel reaffirmed its guidance that the foundry business will reach breakeven by the end of 2027, and stated that if this slips to 2028 it would mainly be due to increased new investment requirements. We maintain our existing view that 2Q26 18A yields are around 80%, and CWF (Clearwater Forest) has already entered the production ramp phase. Collaboration with external customers also continues to progress, with Apple’s 14A high volume production particularly notable. We raise our FY27/FY28 backend revenue estimates to $1.1bn/$7.0bn respectively, driven by improved visibility on AWS Trainium3 (T3) adopting EMIB-T in 2027, and by Google’s Humufish/Triggerfish entering volume expansion in 2H27 to 2028. We also expect ASICs from AWS and Microsoft could adopt EMIB in 2028. $INTC

《GF Securities Overseas Electronics Newsletter》 ☄ Intel (INTC, Buy): Equity Offering Signals Confidence, Foundry and EMIB Continue to Advance ☀ Reiterate Buy and $136 target price: We view this equity offering as sending a positive signal. The CEO’s direct subscription demonstrates confidence, and it also reflects the smooth progress of the foundry business. We expect the foundry business to reach breakeven (BEP) in 4Q27, with margin leverage kicking in fully in 2028. Yields and external customer acquisition (particularly Apple) are progressing solidly, and the EMIB customer base is also expanding (Google and AWS). Intel has secured support from substrate (carrier) supplier Unimicron, and will produce silicon capacitors internally. We raise our 2026E/2027E EPS estimates by 3%/1% respectively and maintain our $136 target price, factoring in dilution. ☀ The equity offering sends a positive signal: Intel upsized the offering from an initial $15bn to $20bn, and institutional demand reportedly exceeded $100bn. The offering price was $95, and the overallotment option (greenshoe) was fully exercised. CEO Lip-Bu Tan and his family subscribed for roughly $12mn at the offering price, which we read as a signal of management’s confidence in the company, and which should also support FY27 capex. ☀ A solid EMIB customer base drives the foundry business further: Intel reaffirmed its guidance that the foundry business will reach breakeven by the end of 2027, and stated that if this slips to 2028 it would mainly be due to increased new investment requirements. We maintain our existing view that 2Q26 18A yields are around 80%, and CWF (Clearwater Forest) has already entered the production ramp phase. Collaboration with external customers also continues to progress, with Apple’s 14A high volume production particularly notable. We raise our FY27/FY28 backend revenue estimates to $1.1bn/$7.0bn respectively, driven by improved visibility on AWS Trainium3 (T3) adopting EMIB-T in 2027, and by Google’s Humufish/Triggerfish entering volume expansion in 2H27 to 2028. We also expect ASICs from AWS and Microsoft could adopt EMIB in 2028. $INTC

Source:https://x.com/jukan05/status/2088084143662113198