$CRWV +14% AH Pricing power, reaccelerating bookings, and a residual value surprise ⬇️ >Rev $2.6B (+112% YoY, +24% QoQ), adj op income ~40% above high end of guide. Raised full-year rev guidance by $400M vs the $15M beat. >Margins inflecting: adj op margin 1% in Q1, 5% in Q2, low-teens targeted Q4. Revenue + pricing scaling at least as fast debt load as deployments mature. >July price hike ~25% across all SKUs, output inflation outpacing input costs >New contract contribution margins 5-10pts above recent qtrs, led by Vera Rubin. We est. 65-70% contribution on new cloud, 80%+ on inference recontracts >Backlog net add was modest in qtr (+$5B to $105B), but +$25B of fresh Q3 commitments since July 1 signals reacceleration >Residual value: 2020-vintage GPUs still contracting 3+ years forward at attractive rates >Recontracting not in base underwriting, every renewal is pure IRR upside >Inference emerging as natural second life for older fleet coming off term contracts >Inference ARR grew ~100x in a single quarter, targeting $250M by YE >Active power 1.0 GW entering Q1, 1.5 GW exiting Q2, guided 1.85 GW by YE (up from 1.7GW). June alone added 300 MW, more than any prior full quarter in company history, with another 500MW contracted since qtr close >CapEx guide raised again (by 11%), two qtrs running, demand signal and higher component costs What the (raised) guidance implies: 2026 exit ARR of $18.5-19.5B implies Q4 revenue of $4.6-4.9B vs. Q3 guided at $3.45-3.6B. That's a $1B+ sequential jump in Q4, larger than any prior quarter and suggests YoY growth accelerates from +112% in Q2 to +158% in Q3 to +200%+ in Q4. Q2 revs were back-end loaded but they have the $25B signed in July so off to a great start in 2H. CRWV has beaten revenue guidance all 6 quarters public so as an industry investor I'd fade their full-year topline at your peril. Whether or not the stock represents good value here is an entirely other story and for another post.

$CRWV +14% AH Pricing power, reaccelerating bookings, and a residual value surprise ⬇️ >Rev $2.6B (+112% YoY, +24% QoQ), adj op income ~40% above high end of guide. Raised full-year rev guidance by $400M vs the $15M beat. >Margins inflecting: adj op margin 1% in Q1, 5% in Q2, low-teens targeted Q4. Revenue + pricing scaling at least as fast debt load as deployments mature. >July price hike ~25% across all SKUs, output inflation outpacing input costs >New contract contribution margins 5-10pts above recent qtrs, led by Vera Rubin. We est. 65-70% contribution on new cloud, 80%+ on inference recontracts >Backlog net add was modest in qtr (+$5B to $105B), but +$25B of fresh Q3 commitments since July 1 signals reacceleration >Residual value: 2020-vintage GPUs still contracting 3+ years forward at attractive rates >Recontracting not in base underwriting, every renewal is pure IRR upside >Inference emerging as natural second life for older fleet coming off term contracts >Inference ARR grew ~100x in a single quarter, targeting $250M by YE >Active power 1.0 GW entering Q1, 1.5 GW exiting Q2, guided 1.85 GW by YE (up from 1.7GW). June alone added 300 MW, more than any prior full quarter in company history, with another 500MW contracted since qtr close >CapEx guide raised again (by 11%), two qtrs running, demand signal and higher component costs What the (raised) guidance implies: 2026 exit ARR of $18.5-19.5B implies Q4 revenue of $4.6-4.9B vs. Q3 guided at $3.45-3.6B. That's a $1B+ sequential jump in Q4, larger than any prior quarter and suggests YoY growth accelerates from +112% in Q2 to +158% in Q3 to +200%+ in Q4. Q2 revs were back-end loaded but they have the $25B signed in July so off to a great start in 2H. CRWV has beaten revenue guidance all 6 quarters public so as an industry investor I'd fade their full-year topline at your peril. Whether or not the stock represents good value here is an entirely other story and for another post.

Source:https://x.com/matthew_sigel/status/2087328720960766120