quote: Jukan got unfairly attacked over this Even though he is clearly saying that optics will outperform memory in the "short term" This also happened in the February to March period of this year Memory requires a sentiment change Buyside expectations were too high ASP increases were overestimated, and nobody expected that Hynix would sell HBM to Nvidia at a steep discount Now, what can cause a change in sentiment and multiple expansion?? Higher than expected ASP hikes for Q3 2026(low chance as the consumer electronics players are resisting it) and durability of LTAs Investors still believe that customers will break their LTAs just like previous cycles due to CAPEX spending going down/peaking soon U may believe that this is false, but everyone isn't as AGI pilled as u, anon The boomer fund managers certainly aren't | I think the market ultimately has no choice but to go sell memory, long optical in the "short term." Actually, some hedge funds already seem to have this position on. There are three main reasons. 1. With Korean leveraged ETFs effectively dead, LPs are in a redemption rush, which could bring out additional sell on flow. 2. Nvidia is nerfing Rubin Ultra's HBM and responding with optics, tying multiple racks together, so that even if Rubin Ultra's per rack performance is not superior to Rubin, at the cluster level optics let the Rubin Ultra cluster hold an edge over the Rubin cluster. This holds even if Rubin Ultra's HBM nerf is a supply problem rather than a demand problem. 3. Consensus is forming that memory prices will peak within the next two quarters. Medium to long term I am still a memory bull, but short term I am somewhat bearish on memory. I currently have no memory position.

quote: Jukan got unfairly attacked over this Even though he is clearly saying that optics will outperform memory in the "short term" This also happened in the February to March period of this year Memory requires a sentiment change Buyside expectations were too high ASP increases were overestimated, and nobody expected that Hynix would sell HBM to Nvidia at a steep discount Now, what can cause a change in sentiment and multiple expansion?? Higher than expected ASP hikes for Q3 2026(low chance as the consumer electronics players are resisting it) and durability of LTAs Investors still believe that customers will break their LTAs just like previous cycles due to CAPEX spending going down/peaking soon U may believe that this is false, but everyone isn't as AGI pilled as u, anon The boomer fund managers certainly aren't | I think the market ultimately has no choice but to go sell memory, long optical in the "short term." Actually, some hedge funds already seem to have this position on. There are three main reasons. 1. With Korean leveraged ETFs effectively dead, LPs are in a redemption rush, which could bring out additional sell on flow. 2. Nvidia is nerfing Rubin Ultra's HBM and responding with optics, tying multiple racks together, so that even if Rubin Ultra's per rack performance is not superior to Rubin, at the cluster level optics let the Rubin Ultra cluster hold an edge over the Rubin cluster. This holds even if Rubin Ultra's HBM nerf is a supply problem rather than a demand problem. 3. Consensus is forming that memory prices will peak within the next two quarters. Medium to long term I am still a memory bull, but short term I am somewhat bearish on memory. I currently have no memory position.

Source:https://x.com/jukan05/status/2086321565118140561