quote: As time passes, Tehran appears increasingly confident that the pressure is shifting onto Washington. Iranian leaders seem to believe that the United States is now more eager than Iran to bring the confrontation in the Strait of Hormuz to an end, and, crucially, that Washington has few attractive military options for changing that equation. From Tehran’s perspective, the United States faces a serious escalation dilemma. A broader military campaign could eventually require a deeper and potentially ground-based U.S. commitment, while strikes against Iran’s energy infrastructure could trigger an unprecedented Iranian response, further disrupting global energy markets and imposing significant costs on the U.S. and global economies. Iran’s demands therefore sharpen the difficult choice facing the administration: accept a substantial portion of Tehran’s terms in order to end the crisis, or escalate militarily and risk paying a steep economic and strategic price, with no guarantee that additional pressure would force Iran to capitulate or even return to negotiations from a weaker position. This is also why an agreement involving Oman, by itself, guarantees very little. The central question is not simply whether the Strait of Hormuz can be reopened, but what Iran receives the day after it does so. Unless Washington and Tehran reach an understanding on that broader political bargain, any agreement risks becoming little more than an agreement "on paper", without resolving the underlying confrontation. #IranWar‌ | Breaking News: Iran’s top security official said the Strait of Hormuz would not reopen until the U.S. met a sweeping list of demands, including withdraw the U.S. military from around Iran, pay war reparations and release frozen Iranian assets. https://nyti.ms/4fMrZ3x

quote: As time passes, Tehran appears increasingly confident that the pressure is shifting onto Washington. Iranian leaders seem to believe that the United States is now more eager than Iran to bring the confrontation in the Strait of Hormuz to an end, and, crucially, that Washington has few attractive military options for changing that equation. From Tehran’s perspective, the United States faces a serious escalation dilemma. A broader military campaign could eventually require a deeper and potentially ground-based U.S. commitment, while strikes against Iran’s energy infrastructure could trigger an unprecedented Iranian response, further disrupting global energy markets and imposing significant costs on the U.S. and global economies. Iran’s demands therefore sharpen the difficult choice facing the administration: accept a substantial portion of Tehran’s terms in order to end the crisis, or escalate militarily and risk paying a steep economic and strategic price, with no guarantee that additional pressure would force Iran to capitulate or even return to negotiations from a weaker position. This is also why an agreement involving Oman, by itself, guarantees very little. The central question is not simply whether the Strait of Hormuz can be reopened, but what Iran receives the day after it does so. Unless Washington and Tehran reach an understanding on that broader political bargain, any agreement risks becoming little more than an agreement "on paper", without resolving the underlying confrontation. #IranWar‌ | Breaking News: Iran’s top security official said the Strait of Hormuz would not reopen until the U.S. met a sweeping list of demands, including withdraw the U.S. military from around Iran, pay war reparations and release frozen Iranian assets. https://nyti.ms/4fMrZ3x

Source:https://x.com/staunovo/status/2086321229498024046