Can't wait for this Switch S-1. At $50-80B rumored EV it will establish a critical public benchmark for every powered land developer. Either price makes powered landcos like $WULF look very cheap ⬇️ For the valuation exercise, start with $DLR: >Last month DLR bought Blackstone's 64% interest in 288MW of fully leased Northern Virginia hyperscale at a $7.8B gross asset value = $27M/MW. >Bears said they overpaid and it was a unicorn transaction. Switch hasn't disclosed capacity since going private in 2022, but working from campus disclosures and third-party trackers, my rough reconstruction: >~1GW operating today (508MW last reported in 2022 + Baxtel's ~110% growth estimate) >~750MW contracted/near-term development (Switch has raised $6.6B in ABS/CMBS since 2024. At $8-10M/MW build cost that implies 660-825MW of contracted assets backing that debt, consistent with our estimate) >~3GW+ additional campus runway Apply the framework: >1GW operating × $27M = $27B >750MW contracted × $22M (20% discount due to time & execution risk) = $16.5B >3GW+ runway × $2M = $6B+ = ~$50B If the $80B number materializes, there may be something much more interesting in the S-1. Now $WULF: >102MW operating × $27M = $2.8B 737MW contracted/not yet operating × $22M = $16.2B >2.1GW pipeline × $2M = $4.2B = ~$23.2B implied asset value vs. ~$11B EV today Remember, WULF's contracted MW has known tenants (Core42, Fluidstack/Google, Anthropic), known capex ($8-10M/MW), known delivery dates, and ~$19B TCV on Justified alone. Switch will need to disclose similar details. TLDR: Switch's S-1 will give us the first real look at its MW economics since 2022. If it confirms something close to ~1.5-2GW of operating + contracted capacity, the DLR $27M/MW transaction starts looking less like a high-water mark and more like a serious comp. On that framework $WULF trades at roughly half its implied asset value.

Can't wait for this Switch S-1. At $50-80B rumored EV it will establish a critical public benchmark for every powered land developer. Either price makes powered landcos like $WULF look very cheap ⬇️ For the valuation exercise, start with $DLR: >Last month DLR bought Blackstone's 64% interest in 288MW of fully leased Northern Virginia hyperscale at a $7.8B gross asset value = $27M/MW. >Bears said they overpaid and it was a unicorn transaction. Switch hasn't disclosed capacity since going private in 2022, but working from campus disclosures and third-party trackers, my rough reconstruction: >~1GW operating today (508MW last reported in 2022 + Baxtel's ~110% growth estimate) >~750MW contracted/near-term development (Switch has raised $6.6B in ABS/CMBS since 2024. At $8-10M/MW build cost that implies 660-825MW of contracted assets backing that debt, consistent with our estimate) >~3GW+ additional campus runway Apply the framework: >1GW operating × $27M = $27B >750MW contracted × $22M (20% discount due to time & execution risk) = $16.5B >3GW+ runway × $2M = $6B+ = ~$50B If the $80B number materializes, there may be something much more interesting in the S-1. Now $WULF: >102MW operating × $27M = $2.8B 737MW contracted/not yet operating × $22M = $16.2B >2.1GW pipeline × $2M = $4.2B = ~$23.2B implied asset value vs. ~$11B EV today Remember, WULF's contracted MW has known tenants (Core42, Fluidstack/Google, Anthropic), known capex ($8-10M/MW), known delivery dates, and ~$19B TCV on Justified alone. Switch will need to disclose similar details. TLDR: Switch's S-1 will give us the first real look at its MW economics since 2022. If it confirms something close to ~1.5-2GW of operating + contracted capacity, the DLR $27M/MW transaction starts looking less like a high-water mark and more like a serious comp. On that framework $WULF trades at roughly half its implied asset value.

Source:https://x.com/matthew_sigel/status/2086247399912059295