quote: People are not looking at the supply side nearly enough. What matters right now is that making HBM in greater volume and with more superior specs cuts commodity DRAM supply far too much. This also affects SOCAMM2 supply, which will affect total Rubin rack shipments. In other words, cutting HBM to increase SOCAMM2 supply and raise total Rubin rack shipments is the rational move, and that fits Nvidia's interest. The resulting performance loss is solved at the NPO layer and addressed at the cluster level. | I think the market ultimately has no choice but to go sell memory, long optical in the "short term." Actually, some hedge funds already seem to have this position on. There are three main reasons. 1. With Korean leveraged ETFs effectively dead, LPs are in a redemption rush, which could bring out additional sell on flow. 2. Nvidia is nerfing Rubin Ultra's HBM and responding with optics, tying multiple racks together, so that even if Rubin Ultra's per rack performance is not superior to Rubin, at the cluster level optics let the Rubin Ultra cluster hold an edge over the Rubin cluster. This holds even if Rubin Ultra's HBM nerf is a supply problem rather than a demand problem. 3. Consensus is forming that memory prices will peak within the next two quarters. Medium to long term I am still a memory bull, but short term I am somewhat bearish on memory. I currently have no memory position.

quote: People are not looking at the supply side nearly enough. What matters right now is that making HBM in greater volume and with more superior specs cuts commodity DRAM supply far too much. This also affects SOCAMM2 supply, which will affect total Rubin rack shipments. In other words, cutting HBM to increase SOCAMM2 supply and raise total Rubin rack shipments is the rational move, and that fits Nvidia's interest. The resulting performance loss is solved at the NPO layer and addressed at the cluster level. | I think the market ultimately has no choice but to go sell memory, long optical in the "short term." Actually, some hedge funds already seem to have this position on. There are three main reasons. 1. With Korean leveraged ETFs effectively dead, LPs are in a redemption rush, which could bring out additional sell on flow. 2. Nvidia is nerfing Rubin Ultra's HBM and responding with optics, tying multiple racks together, so that even if Rubin Ultra's per rack performance is not superior to Rubin, at the cluster level optics let the Rubin Ultra cluster hold an edge over the Rubin cluster. This holds even if Rubin Ultra's HBM nerf is a supply problem rather than a demand problem. 3. Consensus is forming that memory prices will peak within the next two quarters. Medium to long term I am still a memory bull, but short term I am somewhat bearish on memory. I currently have no memory position.

Source:https://x.com/jukan05/status/2086073288242123134