Strait of Hormuz over the last 24 hours: Iran's final chance for a deal? A deal to open the Strait of Hormuz by tomorrow? Unlikely as evidenced by the fact that another vessel was attacked today in the Oman lane. As I reported earlier in the day, US was gearing up for another convoy to go through the Oman lane. I have no idea which tankers joined in, but we will know after the fact. The Oman lane, as reported, has picked up recently pushing average volumes close to 4 to 5 million b/d. Despite that, physical crude market remains tight. In order to exert pressure on the US, Iran needs to enforce the traffic in the Oman lane. Without doing so, it will render its leverage over the Strait meaningless. This implies more escalation than what we have seen so far. So while Trump can TACO, it takes 2 to make a deal. Video from @MarineTraffic

Strait of Hormuz over the last 24 hours: Iran's final chance for a deal? A deal to open the Strait of Hormuz by tomorrow? Unlikely as evidenced by the fact that another vessel was attacked today in the Oman lane. As I reported earlier in the day, US was gearing up for another convoy to go through the Oman lane. I have no idea which tankers joined in, but we will know after the fact. The Oman lane, as reported, has picked up recently pushing average volumes close to 4 to 5 million b/d. Despite that, physical crude market remains tight. In order to exert pressure on the US, Iran needs to enforce the traffic in the Oman lane. Without doing so, it will render its leverage over the Strait meaningless. This implies more escalation than what we have seen so far. So while Trump can TACO, it takes 2 to make a deal. Video from @MarineTraffic

Source:https://x.com/staunovo/status/2084489007887507549