quote: The frustration with this war is understandable. The United States has inflicted enormous damage on Iran, yet the weaker side in the conflict continues to refuse to surrender or make fundamental concessions. That, however, should not be surprising. The problem is that expanding the campaign to include civilian and economic infrastructure is unlikely to produce a different strategic outcome. Iran will undoubtedly absorb severe economic damage, but it is equally likely to respond by increasing the costs for its adversaries. Rather than capitulating, Tehran will seek to impose comparable pain on the Gulf states through attacks on critical infrastructure and by maintaining pressure on the world's two most important maritime chokepoints. The Strait of Hormuz will not simply reopen, nor will the Bab el-Mandeb. There is no military silver bullet to the Iran challenge. Damaging infrastructure may deepen Iran's economic crisis, but it is difficult to see how that alone will compel the regime to abandon what it considers its core strategic interests. The leadership has consistently demonstrated that it is prepared to absorb extraordinary costs rather than negotiate from a position of perceived weakness. If anything, Tehran is more likely to escalate in an effort to establish a new deterrence equation. That could include a broader campaign against energy infrastructure across the region, and potentially even attacks on highly sensitive strategic facilities, including nuclear sites. The bottom line is this: the United States can inflict unprecedented damage on Iran, but it should not assume that unprecedented damage will translate into Iranian capitulation. Managing expectations about what military force alone can achieve is just as important as managing the conflict itself. #iran | Breaking via @CBSNews: US and Israel are planning what would be one of the harshest bombing campaigns to date against energy infrastructure targets in Iran, with strikes possible throughout the weekend. There was some discussion about trying to conclude by the time financial markets open Monday because of concern about how the bombings will affect the U.S. and global economy, but an end point wasn't locked in. The president has yet to give the final go orders. The military strike plan came up during President Trump's cabinet meeting at Camp David. There were high-level U.S. discussions Friday about cutting electricity across Tehran, but no decision had been made as of Friday afternoon. @margbrennan @JimLaPorta and me: https://t.co/cF2cgxiBk8

quote: The frustration with this war is understandable. The United States has inflicted enormous damage on Iran, yet the weaker side in the conflict continues to refuse to surrender or make fundamental concessions. That, however, should not be surprising. The problem is that expanding the campaign to include civilian and economic infrastructure is unlikely to produce a different strategic outcome. Iran will undoubtedly absorb severe economic damage, but it is equally likely to respond by increasing the costs for its adversaries. Rather than capitulating, Tehran will seek to impose comparable pain on the Gulf states through attacks on critical infrastructure and by maintaining pressure on the world's two most important maritime chokepoints. The Strait of Hormuz will not simply reopen, nor will the Bab el-Mandeb. There is no military silver bullet to the Iran challenge. Damaging infrastructure may deepen Iran's economic crisis, but it is difficult to see how that alone will compel the regime to abandon what it considers its core strategic interests. The leadership has consistently demonstrated that it is prepared to absorb extraordinary costs rather than negotiate from a position of perceived weakness. If anything, Tehran is more likely to escalate in an effort to establish a new deterrence equation. That could include a broader campaign against energy infrastructure across the region, and potentially even attacks on highly sensitive strategic facilities, including nuclear sites. The bottom line is this: the United States can inflict unprecedented damage on Iran, but it should not assume that unprecedented damage will translate into Iranian capitulation. Managing expectations about what military force alone can achieve is just as important as managing the conflict itself. #iran | Breaking via @CBSNews: US and Israel are planning what would be one of the harshest bombing campaigns to date against energy infrastructure targets in Iran, with strikes possible throughout the weekend. There was some discussion about trying to conclude by the time financial markets open Monday because of concern about how the bombings will affect the U.S. and global economy, but an end point wasn't locked in. The president has yet to give the final go orders. The military strike plan came up during President Trump's cabinet meeting at Camp David. There were high-level U.S. discussions Friday about cutting electricity across Tehran, but no decision had been made as of Friday afternoon. @margbrennan @JimLaPorta and me: https://t.co/cF2cgxiBk8

Source:https://x.com/staunovo/status/2083445507213430922