I think it’s cool that funds like Situational Awareness can exist in America and that there’s a market for them. But the outcome was never about being right or wrong on AI. At ~150% vol, variance drag alone is ~113%/yr, and risk of ruin is roughly a coin flip over the fund’s life. A child can do the math on a napkin (Claude did — “ruin wasn’t unlikely, it was roughly even money”). Volatility that high pierces every other fact about a portfolio: the thesis, the timing, the talent. The initial success and the margin call are draws from the same distribution. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/30/leopold-aschenbrenners-hedge-fund-is-facing-steep-ai-losses.html

I think it’s cool that funds like Situational Awareness can exist in America and that there’s a market for them. But the outcome was never about being right or wrong on AI. At ~150% vol, variance drag alone is ~113%/yr, and risk of ruin is roughly a coin flip over the fund’s life. A child can do the math on a napkin (Claude did — “ruin wasn’t unlikely, it was roughly even money”). Volatility that high pierces every other fact about a portfolio: the thesis, the timing, the talent. The initial success and the margin call are draws from the same distribution. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/30/leopold-aschenbrenners-hedge-fund-is-facing-steep-ai-losses.html

Source:https://twitter.com/richardcraib/status/2082858091843035593