The biggest change since yesterday came from interest rates, not geopolitics.

October CPI came in fairly spicy and Fed Governor Waller raised the idea of a half-point hike in December, so the 2-year Treasury yield had its biggest one-day jump since April 2025.

Ships near Hormuz are still being attacked even though oil is priced as if things are actually calming down (which makes no sense).

I'd call the risk level elevated but not escalating.

The danger is that markets are pricing in a conflict de-escalation WAY faster than the ACTUAL events justify.

U.S. bond markets are closed today for Veterans Day, but equity markets are open.

Between a potential half point rate increase and chip/AI credit turning dry and expensive... I'm not expecting a great next 60 days.

What I do expect is that drafts for an AI/Chips bailout is probably already being written, because, ya know... national security and all that jazz.