"D is for Dilution" is an essay about how $SPCX, Anthropic, and OpenAI IPOs will destroy capital and initiate the next d | Hanami
"D is for Dilution" is an essay about how $SPCX, Anthropic, and OpenAI IPOs will destroy capital and initiate the next down leg in AI.
"Migrating to AI, do the supply dynamics of the public equities of SpaceX and soon to list dastardly duo, Anthropic and OpenAI, portend to profit or poverty? Poverty you fucking plebe! I argue that, similar to early ZEC investors, if you bought or buy a share of these IPOs at their offering price, you will lose money as the insiders unlock and dump their shares. This presents an issue for the general market environment because the entire AI trade rests on vibes. The vibes surrounding whether you believe the lofty future profitability and ubiquity of AI determine whether you lend money to the industry. These vibes emanate from the only objective measure of AI’s success, whether the stonk price is Number Go Up or Down. Therefore, without any discussion whether the CEOs of SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI are lying or committing accounting fraud, I know the market will assume they are once the stock prices sag below the IPO price because of massive insider unlocks. Once I show you the terrible maths which will drive investor disillusionment, then I can lay out a trading strategy as global liquidity deteriorates before an eventual bailout."