Wow
Reply to @jun_song: More context :
A single Waymo car uses 4 H100 GPUs just to drive itself. That is about $200k | Hanami
Wow
Reply to @jun_song: More context :
A single Waymo car uses 4 H100 GPUs just to drive itself. That is about $200k worth of compute inside one car.
Right now, the Nvidia Orin self-driving modules used in Mercedes pack, and Tesla FSD use 64GB of LPDDR5X RAM.
Most people think better tech means we will need less memory over time. The exact opposite is happening.
Tesla's upcoming AI5 chip will jump to 96GB, and the AI6 chip is going straight to 144GB.
Even your smart fridge and smart TV need RAM now.
Soon, literally every physical object around us will have memory built into it.
And as robotics takes off, those memory numbers are going to get much bigger.
There is no way around the hardware bottleneck:
If AI robots run on the cloud, you need massive data centers full of memory.
If AI robots run on-device, you have to pack huge amounts of RAM directly into the machine.
Either way, the world is going to need an insane amount of memory.
This is not a problem we can fix easily.
Quoted @jun_song: Hate to break it to you, but the global hardware shortage has not even started yet.
Right now, only 1% of humanity is burning any real amount of AI tokens. The rest are just using free accounts once in a while to ask dumb questions like "Who would win in a fight between a baby seal and 300 hamsters?"
And like Elon said, most RAM will not even go into data centers. It will go into Physical AI, which is robotics.
That is because robotics is the only thing that can actually boost human productivity in a real way.
People on X freak out every time AI solves a hard math problem, while people in the real world just go on with their lives like nothing happened. Meanwhile, robotics is already taking over factories and changing the physical world.
Imagine when these robots start replacing our daily chores. How much more RAM and compute will we need then?
Like I have said many times, building a new fab to make RAM takes at least 5 years, and supply is already fully booked out until 2029.
Even if the so-called AI bubble pops, this massive RAM shortage is not going away.
Starting next year, even the new iPhone might be too expensive for most people to afford.