Top Overnight News

Oil dropped after a report said President Trump wants to give diplomacy with Iran more time before potentially resuming strikes following Tuesday’s midterm elections. Both Brent and WTI declined about 3%. BBG

Iran said it could have Hormuz reopened within 2 days if the US agrees to its conditions, which include a removal of the strait blockade: Al Arabiya

Pakistan’s military is “cautiously optimistic” about its mediation between Iran and the United States, its spokesman said on Friday in his first interview since a high-level delegation visited Tehran this week. RTRS

Gulf Arab states fear another US-Israeli attack on a better-prepared Iran could unleash an even more destructive war across the region, leaving them to pick up the pieces. BBG

Goldman Sachs raised oil-price forecasts for the year-end and 2027 on elevated risks to supplies, joining other banks in hiking their outlooks after months of war in the Middle East. BBG

The U.S. is backing a quick resumption of Russian natural-gas sales to Europe via pipelines running through Moscow’s wartime enemy -Ukraine- as part of negotiations aimed at securing an energy ceasefire ahead of the coming winter, according to U.S., European and Ukrainian officials. WSJ

China’s central bank announced on Monday it would start a fresh round of a swap facility that would channel about $15 billion into the struggling onshore stock market, after its worst monthly sell-off in a decade dealt a heavy blow to investor confidence and threatened to add new risks to the country’s financial system. SCMP

Chinese buying of US farm goods other than soybeans is on track for a seven-year low this year despite an agreement to purchase billions of dollars in imports, a Reuters analysis of customs data showed, underscoring long-running uncertainties about the deal. RTRS

Wall Street is bracing for the biggest overhaul of Treasury sales guidance in years on Wednesday, with some dealers expecting cuts to 20- and 30-year bond issuance. Buyback guidance may also change. BBG

Binance's customers have withdrawn almost $5 billion from the world's biggest cryptocurrency exchange since it reopened after a hack that saw $6.3 billion of crypto stolen from the platform in what could be the largest financial heist in history. RTRS

In Senate races, Democrats lead in Michigan, Texas, Kansas, Maine and Ohio, hold an edge in Alaska and are effectively tied with the GOP in Iowa, final polls by the NYT and Siena showed. BBG

60% of S&P 500 companies have beaten consensus EPS expectations by more than a standard deviation of analyst estimates, above the historical average of 50% but a step down from the average of 64% during the past 4 quarters. Likewise, for the aggregate S&P 500, Q3 earnings so far have come in above consensus expectations, but the size of the upside surprise has been smaller than in recent quarters. GS

US President Trump said he may have to become "Mr Veto" if Democrats secure a majority in Tuesday's midterm elections: New York Post (via Fox News)

White House has reportedly been preparing contingency plans for months to advance parts of the president's agenda by executive action if Democrats win control of Congress and has prepared for congressional investigations of the administration. Newsquawk

OpenAI reportedly lowered its fundraising target by USD 10bln to around USD 20bln at a USD 1.25tln valuation, down from USD 30bln at a USD 1.4tln valuation last month, as an AI stock sell-off and rival Anthropic's anticipated public listing complicate efforts to secure investor commitments: Financial Times

Anthropic plans Japan share sale worth as much as USD 3.5bln ahead of Nasdaq listing: filing

OPEC+ keeps December quotas stable as focus turns to 2027 limits. BBG

Alstom shares plunged as much as 31% after the train maker cut its FY margin guidance and warned of a significant free-cash outflow. BBG

Fitch revised France's credit rating outlook to negative in an unscheduled review, citing weaker economic growth, higher borrowing costs and a widening fiscal deficit. BBG/Newsquawk

JPM's Feroli sees 54.5 for ISM manufacturing, 55.5 for ISM services and +75k for October payrolls with the unemployment rate falling to 4.1%; Goldman also forecasts +75k vs consensus +62k. JPM/GS