Very predictable when you have an evil corrupt socialist regime in power.
Reply to @KobeissiLetter: BREAKING: Brazil's | Hanami
Very predictable when you have an evil corrupt socialist regime in power.
Reply to @KobeissiLetter: BREAKING: Brazil's -19.8% stock market crash on Monday was one of the rarest market events in the last two decades, according to our analysis.
Brazil's EWZ ETF plunged -19.8% on October 26th, marking an 8.4 standard deviation move.
For context, the ETF's average daily move over the last 20 years has been just +0.04%, with a standard deviation of 2.36%.
Under a normal distribution, the probability of a decline this extreme is approximately 1 in 58 quadrillion.
In other words, this event should be virtually impossible under conventional statistical models.
What just happened in Brazil was *almost* impossible.
Quoted @KobeissiLetter: One of the most insane charts we've seen.
Even as Brazilian stocks plunge -30% after their Presidential election, Brazil's volatility index is DOWN -40%.
Brazil has lost -$200B of market cap today, yet "volatility" is collapsing.
What is happening? Let us explain.
(a thread)