Interview with @MiadMaleki, a former senior official at the U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), who helped design the maximum-pressure sanctions campaign against Iran and is now a senior fellow @FDD.

His central argument is that Israel would be far more vulnerable than Iran to serious financial sanctions because its economy is deeply integrated into Western financial markets.

The article makes several important points:

1. Sanctions could extend far beyond the West Bank. Israeli banks finance construction and provide mortgages in the settlements. Foreign financial institutions could sever relationships with these banks rather than risk exposure to sanctions.

2. Banks may overcomply. Even narrowly targeted sanctions can have wider consequences because financial institutions avoid activities that might expose them to U.S. penalties. Maleki cites the rapid freezing of sanctioned settlers' bank accounts in 2024.

3. Israel cannot realistically circumvent Western sanctions. Unlike Iran, Israel depends heavily on Western investment, dollar transactions, technology exports, and international financial integration. Cryptocurrency would not provide a viable alternative.

4. Banking sanctions are the greatest danger. Maleki distinguishes between sanctions on individuals, trade restrictions, and financial sanctions. He argues that measures targeting banks would be the most consequential.

5. The political threat could grow. The article discusses potential congressional action after the November 2026 midterm elections and the possibility that a future Democratic president could reinstate and expand sanctions.

6. The consequences could be severe. Maleki warns that broad financial isolation could undermine Israel's standard of living and its access to international markets.

The article's central warning

Maleki says:
“Israel will not become Iran, but it will not be able to remain Israel either.”
He argues that Israel, with $165 billion in annual exports, 56% of them services sold to Western companies, cannot build an alternative economy insulated from Western financial pressure.

He concludes that the distance from such a scenario depends on Israeli conduct in the West Bank and whether support for Israel in Washington remains bipartisan.