Top Overnight News The US is preparing for a protracted conflict with Iran, even as the Trump administration hopes its bombing campaigns and economic sanctions will force major concessions from the Islamic republic. Mike Waltz, Donald Trump’s ambassador to the UN, acknowledged that a year from now the US could still be mired in a stalemate with Iran, without a deal on Tehran’s nuclear program or a return to prewar shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. FT Iran’s message is stark: If the U.S. and Israel restart their air campaign, Tehran will respond with strikes not only on American bases and warships but on airports, pipelines and other civilian targets in the neighboring countries of the Persian Gulf. WSJ The movement of “illicit vessels” through the Strait of Hormuz has “completely halted” after the latest Iranian attacks against ships, Iran’s semi-official Fars news agency cites an official close to the IRGC as saying. BBG A tanker carrying diesel left the Russian port of Primorsk and intermittently signaled New York, potentially marking the first such shipment following a fuel-supply agreement between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump. BBG SpaceX aims to secure a minimum of 80,000 cell sites across the US, and is in talks with at least one major cellular infrastructure firm to reach that goal. BBG OpenAI, which is seeking to raise around $30 billion in a fresh funding round, is now targeting a valuation of $1.25 trillion during the final stages of negotiations, a $150 billion drop from the $1.4 trillion it was seeking last month. BBG Global hedge funds suffered one of their broadest declines since the Covid pandemic following the stock market selloff on Thursday, according to Goldman’s prime brokerage desk. BBG Metrics across global bond markets are signaling their biggest risk-off sentiment in more than a year, as a selloff in AI stocks and growing geopolitical tensions caused investors to seek out safe-haven assets. BBG The BOJ may maintain a continued fast pace of rate hikes given price trends and a view at the bank that the impact of increases on the economy so far has been limited, with December the next potential move, people familiar said. BBG Japan’s key price gauge rose above the Bank of Japan’s target level for the first time this year, supporting the case for a widely expected BOJ interest rate hike in December. BBG The ECB will lift rates for the final time in December following a pause next week, economists said. That’s at odds with market bets on far more hikes lying ahead. Central bank data showed inflation expectations among households increased slightly last month. BBG Eurozone flash PMIs for Oct were soft, w/the composite number coming in at 51.9 (down from 53.1 and below the Street’s 52.7), w/a lot of the weakness stemming from the French services sector (due to unrest in that country), while manufacturers reported a spike in input cost inflation. S&P France is bracing for a new round of protests tomorrow, rolling out the military to back up police in a bid to prevent a repeat of last weekend’s riots that led to violence, looting and arrests. BBG Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and challenger Flávio Bolsonaro are tied at 50% each of valid votes before Sunday’s runoff election, a new poll showed. BBG SK Hynix scrapped plans for a potential $10 billion US listing of its Solidigm unit. BBG BASF is said to increase its bid for rival Evonik to about €24 per share. BBG The Trump administration is looking to restrict US investment in Chinese biotech companies, proposing the addition of biotechnology to a list of sensitive technologies. BBG Russia's central bank left its key rate at 14.00%, in line with estimates, as Ukrainian strikes spur inflation. BBG US President Trump will deliver remarks in Florida on Friday, Georgia on Saturday and Michigan on Sunday: The White House Goldman's Prime desk says Global Fundamental L/S funds fell 1.4% Thursday, their worst day since July 16, while TMT funds are down 9.6% month-to-date. GS JPM's Feroli expects the October flash manufacturing PMI to decline to 54.5 from 55.9 and the services PMI to ease to 58.0 from 58.8. JPM