Our Q4 view is constructive, but conditional on rates and market developments.
Two signals decide the direction: wheth | Hanami
Our Q4 view is constructive, but conditional on rates and market developments.
Two signals decide the direction: whether inflation data lets the Fed hold on October 28, and whether the 30-year Treasury yield stops rising. ETF demand decides how far a rally can run.
Options traders are hedging. Puts outnumber calls at both the October 30 and December 25 expiries, and October puts cluster well below the market.
Reply to @Nexo: Bitcoin reached its peak in October 2025, while the Fed was still cutting rates. It reached its low in June 2026, when rates were on hold. This was a few weeks after inflation peaked at 4.2%.
The September rate hike is the test. Bitcoin is up about 8% since then. This breaks the past pattern: after 17 of the 20 Fed hikes since 2015, Bitcoin was lower 30 days later. The next data will show if this lasts.
As of October 22, 2026, CME FedWatch shows a probability of about 87% for a hold on October 28 and a probability of about 84% for at least one hike by December 9.