@matthew_sigel quote (Wed Oct 21 20:17:04 +0000 2026): $META +3% AH.
>Revenue $64.6B beat (guide was $61-64B)
>FY capex floor raised: $135-145B vs $130-145B, midpoint $140B.
>Q4 math: YTD capex (incl. finance leases) is $85.8B
>Raised capex guidance implies $49-59Bin Q4, ~$54B at midpoint, +55% q/q.
"Our AI investments are already delivering substantial incremental advertising revenue through stronger engagement, better recommendations, and more efficient monetization."
Original @matthew_sigel (Wed Oct 21 18:22:55 +0000 2026): $META reports after the close. We think 3Q26 earnings could be positive read through for $CLSK & $APLD (among all PSPs and neos)
- Look for Muse monetization and potential compute expansions to support it
- FY 2026 capex guide is currently $130-145B
- FY 2027 consensus capex guide is $193B
Muse early adoption looks strong with 10.9M downloads and ~2.5M DAUs, much faster growth than other launches (although caveats being Muse launched on IOS and Android at once while ChatGPT, Claude and Grok were initially IOS only, and it was heavily promoted taking up most of Metas house-ad impressions). DAU durability is an open question due to this heavy marketing push.
Lot of focus on Muse's monetization path and compute needed to support it, which is relevant for $CLSK which already has a 20-year lease with Meta at Sandersville (175MWs), and a LOI/exclusivity for 885MWs in its TX portfolio. Commentary supporting more 3P leases of capacity would be positive and would support lease execution of this additional power. Would be good to hear that Meta is back focused on utilizing its compute in-house rather than re-selling excess.
Meta is also expected to come to debt markets shortly after earnings to fund capex plans, a smooth process could support their ability to keep expanding capacity via 3P leases (CLSK).
It is also believed that APLD's two newest leases are with Meta (one unnamed hyperscaler), 300MW in Louisiana and 300MWs in North Dakota. Although this is unconfirmed. Also a potential beneficiary around commentary from Meta around wanting more 3P compute.(Historical earnings: For 2027Q1 (period ended 2026-08-31), Applied Digital reported basic and diluted EPS of -0.82, net loss of USD 0.184 billion, revenue from contracts with customers of USD 0.263 billion, and total revenues of USD 0.342 billion.
Consensus expectations: For 2027Q1, consensus expects EPS of -0.3098 and revenue of USD 0.138 billion.)