$META reports after the close. We think 3Q26 earnings could be positive read through for $CLSK & $APLD (among all PSPs and neos)
- Look for Muse monetization and potential compute expansions to support it
- FY 2026 capex guide is currently $130-145B
- FY 2027 consensus capex guide is $193B
Muse early adoption looks strong with 10.9M downloads and ~2.5M DAUs, much faster growth than other launches (although caveats being Muse launched on IOS and Android at once while ChatGPT, Claude and Grok were initially IOS only, and it was heavily promoted taking up most of Metas house-ad impressions). DAU durability is an open question due to this heavy marketing push.
Lot of focus on Muse's monetization path and compute needed to support it, which is relevant for $CLSK which already has a 20-year lease with Meta at Sandersville (175MWs), and a LOI/exclusivity for 885MWs in its TX portfolio. Commentary supporting more 3P leases of capacity would be positive and would support lease execution of this additional power. Would be good to hear that Meta is back focused on utilizing its compute in-house rather than re-selling excess.
Meta is also expected to come to debt markets shortly after earnings to fund capex plans, a smooth process could support their ability to keep expanding capacity via 3P leases (CLSK).
It is also believed that APLD's two newest leases are with Meta (one unnamed hyperscaler), 300MW in Louisiana and 300MWs in North Dakota. Although this is unconfirmed. Also a potential beneficiary around commentary from Meta around wanting more 3P compute.(Historical earnings: For 2026Q1 (period ended 2026-03-31), Tesla reported basic EPS of 0.15, diluted EPS of 0.13, net income of USD 0.477 billion, and revenue of USD 22.387 billion. For full-year 2025, basic EPS was 1.18, diluted EPS 1.08, net income USD 3.794 billion, and revenue USD 94.827 billion. Consensus expectations: For 2026Q3 (event date 2026-10-21), consensus expects EPS of 0.4511 and revenue of USD 28.024 billion.)