quote: MIDDLE EAST FLOWS: Not only flows have proven resilient, but over the last few days (particularly since Oct 16), SoH traffic has surged despite Iranian attacks. Total Middle East crude flows (ex-Iran, including SoH and all the bypass pipelines and routes) are back to >90% of pre-war levels (last seen in late Sept), and even higher if using a short 7-day average. Refined products flows remain significantly below. Caveat: flows are very uneven, with some days of large number of tanker crossings, followed by very quiet days. Overall, physical Middle East crude oil premia has continued to drop; just the opposite of what has happened to flat prices. The Oman-Dubai differential has fallen to a 3-month low of ~$4 a barrel. The differential was >$30 a barrel in mid-Sept. | MIDDLE EAST OIL FLOWS: Despite a wave of Iranian attacks since the beginning of October, total Middle Eastern crude oil flows (ex-Iran) remain resilient. Flows are becoming, however, lumpier (days of multiple tanker crossings followed by days of very few tankers). Overall, Middle East (ex-Iran) crude flows, including Strait of Hormuz plus all the bypass routes, are holding at ~75% of pre-war levels, down from a ~95% *peak* in the last days of September. Crucially, despite the drop in recent days, the Oct 1-Oct 10 period average remains above Sep full month average (and well above full month August). Kuwait is struggling the most right now. UAE, Iraq and KSA (the last one using both Persian Gulf and Red Sea) are doing relatively well. All said, the risk is to the downside if the Iranian attacks continue (and if they become more successful). Iran has sunk at least one container ship in the SoH over the last 24 hours. The same goes for Red Sea flows under Houthi / Iraq militias potential attacks. For Iran itself, Hormuz remains closed. One key indicator to follow: despite the Iranian attacks against SoH traffic, the physical premium for Middle Eastern crude has come down significantly in recent days, touching today a near 2½-month low.