$LITE CEO interview on demand, counterparty + financing risk:
- "CFO of $GOOGL came on and reported capex going up Y/ | Hanami
$LITE CEO interview on demand, counterparty + financing risk:
- "CFO of $GOOGL came on and reported capex going up Y/Y, we expect hyperscalers for report an increase in capex in earnings.
Based on what we see, we see their spend going up."
- "The purchase agreements we have, to a large degree, are noncancellable."
- The difference between Lumentum and companies like $AVGO, "we are not as dependent on AI datacenter buildout going forward"
There's a conversion between electrical products to optical products" creating structural demand.
Q: When do you see able to see yourself having more inventory? (catching up to surge in demand)
- When we look at demand, there is "no end in sight"
TLDR:
Financing risk and demand aren't equally distributed across AI supply chains. But markets are just selling everything off together.
As for photonics in specific, I said this before, but increasing optical content per XPU + CPO/NPO adoption keeps going up so we'll likely see sector spend go up, even if aggregate capex goes down.
There's the usual "no end to demand in sight" commentary, but $LITE does have capacity commitments into 2029 now... and are negotiating for 2030. (with new information that most of which are likely hyperscalers + non-cancellable)
So doesn't quite sound like it's all over for the AI trade, especially photonics.(Historical earnings: For 2026Q3 (period ended 2026-03-28), Lumentum reported basic EPS of 3.18, diluted EPS of 2.59, and net income of USD 0.227 billion, compared with basic and diluted EPS of -2.72 and net loss of USD 0.187 billion in 2025Q3. For 2026Q2 (period ended 2025-12-27), basic EPS was 1.17 and diluted EPS was 0.99.
Consensus expectations: For 2026Q4, consensus EPS estimate is 3.0312 and revenue estimate is USD 1.008 billion.)