quote: Ben Horowitz on what it would take to actually see an AI "fast takeoff" scenario, using a framework from Databricks CEO @alighodsi: 1. Each new model needs far fewer GPUs than the last 2. Each new model takes less time to train 3. Each new model is more accurate than the last 4. It keeps happening, again and again "Zero of those four have been met... We're really talking about a risk that's entirely theoretical at this point." @bhorowitz on @theallinpod | Ali Ghodsi of @Databricks on the four conditions that would have to hold for AI to truly improve itself: "The next model requires less resources, less GPUs to train... The second condition: the next model takes less time to train as well. Third, accuracy of the model, the intelligence is increasing. And fourth, we can do the former three again and again and again... All at the same time, not just any of them." "If you just mean that the software is writing itself, we're already there today. Like 90-some percent of the software in Databricks is written by AI. Does it matter if the last few percent is also written by AI? No." "If you're getting these four conditions, then you might get a speed-up where the next model, let's say, takes half amount of time and half the resources, and it is more intelligent... By the way, I don't even know if that necessarily leads you to superintelligence." "A lot of people, their definition is just, 'Hey, if I'm not even coding anymore and it's coding itself'... I think they're conflating, 'Hey, what's my value and is it scary for me?' Versus, 'Hey, that then means we'll get that superintelligence that in 2014 was hypothesized by Bostrom.'" @alighodsi @martin_casado @sarah_wang