NEW: Bloomberg Saturday read

Andy Burnham confronts the nightmare of being PM under Trump. Does he have a plan?

— He might want to focus on domestic issues but the Ukraine crisis has pushed foreign policy to the top of his agenda. Privately government officials talk about a dark reality: Trump is simply not on the UK’s side on the fundamental issue of European security.

— It’s brought the special relationship to its lowest point in recent memory and poses Burnham a premiership-defining challenge, one senior official says. Even Churchill would find it difficult dealing with these global problems without Britain’s main ally and we have a novice in No10 by comparison, they say.

— The early Burnham-Trump relationship has been difficult. While Trump was polite in front of the cameras at their first meeting, behind-closed-doors he railed against Britain’s lack of support for his Iran war, sources say. On Fairford, Trump and the White House have said things, ie that a joint US-UK operation tailed the suspects and that they planned a spectacular drone attack, that just aren’t true, they add.

— Trump’s latest shift toward Russia leaves questions that Burnham’s government is struggling to answer, not least what is his strategy to handle the president and ensure Ukraine is not pressured into accepting an unjust outcome to the war.

— On taking office, Burnham decided to follow the Keir Starmer/Jonathan Powell approach of pursuing quiet diplomacy to persuade Trump into taking less hostile positions towards Europe. Advocates point to counterfactual scenarios that would have been much worse: Trump didn’t try to take Greenland by force, he hasn’t left NATO, he hasn’t stopped all intel and military support for Ukraine, he hasn’t fully sided with Putin.

— The UK’s key foreign policy aim beyond Ukraine is ensuring the transatlantic alliance does not collapse because that would realise Russia’s overarching strategic objective, an official said. Burnham and Britain’s role are more important than ever now Macron and Merz are declining powers, they say.

— But right now it’s hard to argue the strategy is working. Officials say the change of government means diplomatic relationships have had to be restarted from scratch. No10 has announced no phone call between Burnham and Trump since the diesel deal, nor any call between the PM and other European leaders. Officials note the lack of progress under the Coalition of the Willing format in recent months. UK pledges to secure more air defences for Ukraine, including from the US, have yet to deliver.

— If you ask the government what Britain is doing to help Ukraine, what conversations it’s having with the US to get them into a better place, what Burnham is doing with Macron and Merz, what’s happened to the coalition of the willing and where are the promised air defences, there is no answer.

— It is very important to say that veteran UK officials do not see the situation for Ukraine as dire. The US appears to have been pressured by Zelenskyy into restoring Starlink. Ukraine retains the ability to strike Russian oil refineries even without US support. Russia is militarily and economically weak and desperate, and that is why Putin is so keen for Trump to up pressure on Zelenskyy, they add. Britain is sending more Storm Shadows.

— Burnham told Bloomberg in Kyiv in August that he sees a progressive resurgence across the world in response to failed populism, including possibly in the US. In other words, he’s looking forward to a post-Trump world. But he still has to find a way to deal with him now. And the reality is, even if it’s Trump’s fault, an adverse outcome in Ukraine would be what Burnham’s premiership is remembered for.

With @ChaplainChloe: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-17/burnham-finds-his-plans-to-focus-on-britain-blown-up-by-trump