U.S. ECONOMIC DATA — OCTOBER 15, 2026

INFLATION — SEPTEMBER PPI

🔸 Headline PPI MoM: +1.3% (Est. +0.6%)
🔸 Headline PPI YoY: +6.3% (Est. +5.4%)
🔸 Core PPI MoM: +0.7% (Est. +0.3%)
🔸 Core PPI YoY: +5.0% (Est. +4.4%)
🔸 PPI Ex-Food, Energy & Trade: +0.5% MoM, +5.0% YoY
🔸 Energy Prices: +10.8%
🔸 Food Prices: +1.2%
🔸 Goods Prices: +2.6%
🔸 Services Prices: +0.8%
🔸 Trade Services: +1.4%

CONSUMER SPENDING — SEPTEMBER

🔸 Retail Sales: +0.8% MoM (Est. +0.3%)
🔸 Retail Sales Ex-Autos: +0.9% (Est. +0.5%)
🔸 Retail Sales Ex-Autos & Gas: +0.2%
🔸 Retail Sales Control Group: +0.1%
🔸 August Retail Sales: Revised to +1.1%
🔸 August Ex-Autos: Revised to +1.3%
🔸 August Control Group: +1.2%

LABOR MARKET

🔸 Initial Jobless Claims: 199K (Est. 200K; Prior 198K, revised from 197K)
🔸 Continuing Claims: 1.710M (Prior 1.714M, revised from 1.716M)

MANUFACTURING — OCTOBER

🔸 NY Empire State Index: 25.5 (Prior 7.6)
🔸 NY Prices Paid: 59.5 (Prior 63.1)
🔸 NY New Orders: 23.2 (Prior 2.0)
🔸 NY Employment: 10.3 (Prior 10.6)
🔸 Philadelphia Fed Index: 20.9 (Est. 28.0)
🔸 Philadelphia Prices Paid: 43.2 (Prior 48.6)

THE KEY TAKEAWAY: Producer inflation significantly exceeded expectations, consumer spending remained strong, and jobless claims stayed low — reinforcing concerns that the Fed may need to tighten monetary policy further.