Today was the first "-1% SPX / -2% NDX" move since late July

From Goldman's EOD wrap:

First -1% SPX / -2% NDX move since late July. Ugly session with sentiment particularly within the AI complex taking a real step function lower on a combination of 1) heavy focus on what the credit markets are saying about the ability to continue to finance the AI trade and 2) acute focus on neoclouds (-12% today which is a top 5 move in past 5 years) / hyperscale bond yields onto a growing list of recent concerns (openAI revenue confusion, China Memory breakthroughs easing bottlenecks, datacenter sentiment into midterms, future power/shell constraints, further issuance etc) ... all on the heels of hotter than anticipated CPI this AM (core 33bps vs cons 20bps, upside surprise from firmer shelter categories). Given the starting point of front-end pricing significantly compressed from the highs it's not surprising to see the market rebuild some near-term hike risk, mkt now pricing hike probability odds: 35% Oct and 87% December. GIR continues to expect that the Fed will deliver a second hike in December, and looks to tomorrow’s PPI report + Warsh’s speech in Bangkok for soundbites.