GS Delta-One head, Rich Privorotsky, on latest in AI:
Four stories to unpack:
First, CXMT is a legitimate concern for m | Hanami
GS Delta-One head, Rich Privorotsky, on latest in AI:
Four stories to unpack:
First, CXMT is a legitimate concern for memory economics.
Second, Microsoft’s Maia 300 custom chips, moving to TSMC’s 2nm process.Incrementally negative for merchant GPU suppliers (NVDA), positive for the custom silicon supply chain and aggregate compute consumption.
Third, Hock Tan’s comments comparing AI investors to gamblers have been taken wildly out of context. Both Broadcomand Intel reaffirmed exceptionally strong demand for another 2–3 years, potentially through 2030. Tan sees compute demand exceeding supply and explicitly acknowledged that frontier labs generating substantial revenue can afford expensive financing. LT ROI is a legitimate question, but hardly a revelation.
Fourth, Meta’s Muse Wonder and Wonder Full look genuinely competitive at the frontier,potentially adding another serious player alongside OpenAI, Anthropic and Google. Some questions around benchmarking, but impressive nonetheless. Prediction markets also anticipating another major Google release imminently.
What do I make of all this? Competition fuels competition, and competition requires more compute. The frontier keeps advancing, driven by Western closed source labs trying to outdo one another. Hardly bearish for aggregate compute demand, even if the economics shift around the supply chain. Think the legitimate concerns are around the ability to complete capacity/deliver power relative to expectations and that is fueling further de-rating in the capex vertical.(Historical earnings: For 2026Q3 (period ended 2026-04-03), Sandisk reported basic EPS of 30.82, diluted EPS of 29.42, and net income of USD 4.530 billion. For 2026Q2 (period ended 2026-01-02), basic EPS was 6.27 and diluted EPS was 6.02, with net income of USD 0.803 billion. In the prior-year period (2025-03-28), basic and diluted EPS were -11.16, and net income was USD -1.618 billion.
Consensus expectations: For 2027Q2 (event date 2027-01-27), consensus EPS estimate is 54.1008 and revenue estimate is USD 12.393 billion.)