Top Overnight News

Iran is fortifying its defenses, rallying loyalists, and hinting that their forces could conduct land incursions into neighboring countries as it threatens a wider, harsher response against the U.S. and its Gulf allies as it prepares for potential American attacks after the midterms and seeks to deter them. WSJ

Saudi Arabia intercepted ballistic missiles launched by Yemen’s Houthis, targeting Riyadh and Khamis Mushait. Donald Trump dismissed concerns that Russia and China might be helping Iran. Oil slipped after three days of gains. BBG

A global slide in semiconductor stocks deepened, sending South Korea’s chip-heavy equity benchmark down more than 7% at one point, as concerns about AI overheating and Chinese competition intensified. Investor angst over the AI trade increased after Broadcom Inc.’s chief executive likened market sentiment to a casino and warned that financing the buildout will become a key problem. BBG

JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs have taken a rare move to limit exposure on a $5 billion loan sale for AI startup Volta Infrastructure as investors demand higher yields for risky debt tied to the AI boom. BBG

JPMorgan 3Q FICC sales & trading revenue $5.37B, est. $6B; sees FY net interest income about $106.2B, est. $105.28B. BBG

Nvidia's share of China's market for data-center AI chips fell to 34% in the first half of 2026, as US export controls restricted supplies of its products and domestic rivals led by Huawei gained ground. RTRS

Volumes in options tied to individual stocks have recently reached levels seen during the meme-stock mania of 2021, about $700 billion of notional volume a day. WSJ

BoJ officials are leaning against a rare back-to-back interest rate increase this month while still eyeing the possibility of another move as soon as December, according to people familiar with the matter. BBG

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said the surge in long-term US Treasury yields is helping to curb demand in interest-rate-sensitive sectors such as housing and automobiles, doing some of the work of tighter monetary policy. BBG

Big investors are snapping up US Treasuries, seeking to lock in the highest yields in decades as they bet borrowing costs can only climb so much further before a months-long sell-off abates. Investors have injected almost $14bn into US government bond funds since the start of October, after net inflows in the third quarter reached a record $59.3bn. FT

Russia will be able to return diesel exports to levels above those US President Donald Trump has outlined under a deal with Moscow which has been criticised by Ukraine and some US lawmakers, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on Monday. RTRS

Iran and the US remain divided over the sequencing of a diplomatic agreement: Al-Akhbar. Tehran is demanding an end to the war, removal of the naval blockade and oil sanctions, and release of frozen assets before reopening the Strait of Hormuz and discussing nuclear issues, while Washington is insisting on nuclear concessions first. Newsquawk

IMF raised 2026 Global Real GDP growth forecast to 3.1% (prev. 3.0%), citing AI investment tempering energy price shock in key economies, while it maintains 2027 global growth view at 3.4%. Maintained US 2026 growth forecast at 2.3% and raises 2027 forecast to 2.3% (prev. 2.2%), lowered China 2026 GDP forecast to 4.5% (prev. 4.6%) and cut 2027 forecast to 4.0% (prev. 4.1%). Newsquawk

Surging bond yields are the top risk to the financial system, the IMF says. BBG

US Sept. NFIB small business optimism falls to 97.9, est. 98.2. BBG

UK Chancellor Healey is reportedly rejecting calls to equalise capital gains tax and income tax rates: FT

Black Sea strikes threaten Bulgarian refinery supply, the Bulgarian premier says; a merchant ship was sunk off Bulgaria’s Black Sea coast. BBG/Newsquawk

JPM Market Intel stays Tactically Bullish into earnings but flags meaningful risk of a Quality factor reversal around CPI and the Oct. 28 Fed meeting. JPM(Historical earnings: For fiscal 2026 Q2 ended 2026-05-03, Broadcom reported basic EPS of 3.51 and diluted EPS of 3.41. In the prior-year period ended 2025-05-04, basic EPS was 2.23 and diluted EPS was 2.17. For fiscal 2026 Q1 ended 2026-02-01, basic EPS was 1.55 and diluted EPS was 1.5. In the prior-year period ended 2025-02-02, basic EPS was 1.17 and diluted EPS was 1.14. For fiscal 2025 full year ended 2025-11-02, basic EPS was 4.91 and diluted EPS was 4.77. In the prior fiscal year ended 2024-11-03, basic EPS was 1.27 and diluted EPS was 1.23. Consensus expectations: For the upcoming fiscal 2026 Q4 event on 2026-12-09, consensus EPS estimate is 3.8966 and revenue estimate is USD 35.568 billion. For fiscal 2027 Q1 event on 2027-03-02, consensus EPS estimate is 4.1626 and revenue estimate is USD 37.795 billion.)