Exclusive: Trump’s decision to move US bombers out of a UK airbase citing terror threats may embolden Iran and Russia’s use of proxies to carry out sabotage attacks, according to current and former British officials.

While stressing any decision about US military hardware is for Washington, the UK is concerned hostile states will take confidence that they can force changes to Western defence arrangements and destabilise their enemies for the relatively small cost of hiring local criminal proxies, the people said.

It hints at nascent tensions between the new Andy Burnham government and the Trump administration.

Threats from Iran against RAF Fairford have risen as a result of the Iran war, but UK defence officials are confident the base is highly secure and that the full range of threats is being closely monitored. They consider the threats serious but the risk of a successful attack low.

Guard patrols had been increased before the incident, with more surveillance including counter-drone kit put in place, people familiar with the matter said. While drones may be one of a number of different threats to the base along with other forms of sabotage, that doesn’t mean there is a high chance of an attack successfully breaching the base’s multiple layers of security, they said.

While some US officials have speculated Iran could have been seeking to emulate Ukraine’s spectacular Operation Spiderweb against Russian bombers, current and former UK officials and experts disputed the likelihood of such an attack being pulled off.

“People grossly underestimate how many moving parts and how much complex logistics are involved in doing any kind of small drone ops, much less something like Spiderweb,” said Faine Greenwood of drone consultancy Tarentum Consulting.

Communication between the US and the UK about why the bombers were withdrawn was limited and left some senior UK officials confused, other people familiar with the situation at the base said. The US has a low risk tolerance for threats against its kit, they added.

Military officials from other nations that host UK bases have contacted British counterparts since the US decision to ask if the risk to their own countries had increased, people familiar with the conversations said. They had to be reassured the bases were well-defended.

“Whatever the motivation or reason for the US withdrawal, its messaging and handling has been at best ambiguous, and at worst very damaging to both the relationship and the perceptions of relative security of UK bases,” said @gregbagwell, a former RAF senior commander who is now president of the UK Air and Space Power Association.

Another source of confusion surrounding the incident at Fairford has been British investigators’ decision to bail the suspect. Officials stress the men have only been released under the tightest of bail conditions and that they remain under investigation. That gave them confidence that there is no ongoing threat from these suspects, they said.

With @EllenAMilligan @mgerrydoyle: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-07/uk-sees-trump-s-bomber-jets-move-boosting-iran-and-russia