Top Overnight News

Japan’s Sanae Takaichi said the government may review spending and revenue plans if bond yields move unexpectedly. BBG

The EU’s preparing measures to limit imports of Chinese hybrid vehicles into the bloc, people familiar said. One option is to impose a levy on imports above a certain volume. BBG

India’s central bank raised interest rates for the first time in more than three years as the Middle East conflict kept energy prices high, hurting the rupee and fueling inflation fears. The Reserve Bank of India’s monetary policy committee voted unanimously to raise its benchmark repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50%, ending a pause spanning four consecutive meetings. WSJ

According to the Saudi aviation authority, Saudi Arabia’s airports in Jazan and Najran were targeted in two attacks, as hostilities between Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis and the kingdom grow. CNBC

Leading oil executives warned that the world is running out of stopgaps to manage the impact of the Iran war as the conflict extends into an eighth month. Producers and consumers have pulled virtually every lever available to adjust to the diminished flows, including reductions in demand and large releases from strategic petroleum reserves. BBG

The global energy crisis triggered by the Middle East conflict has entered a new phase because of a shortage of tankers to move crude around the world, according to the head of the world’s largest independent oil trader. Vitol chief executive Russell Hardy said that while more oil was now flowing out of the Gulf, there was a fresh bottleneck as buyers struggled to secure ships. FT

The US is gearing up for another quarter of bumper corporate earnings spurred by lavish spending on the AI build-out. The robust growth should help Wall Street shrug off worries about the durability of the AI trade against the backdrop of rising borrowing costs but may do little to allay concerns about how reliant the record-high stock market has become on a small group of technology names. FT

The French government desperately needs a return to strong growth if it is to contain its rapidly rising debts. But uncertainty about whether the country can fix its finances has itself started to weigh on economic activity. France only narrowly avoided a recession in the second quarter, as activity stagnated after extreme heat hit agricultural output and the energy price shock from the war in Iran continued to squeeze households and businesses. WSJ

SpaceX is in talks to raise $40 billion to buy Nvidia chips, people familiar said, in one of the biggest-ever debt financings for AI buildout as the borrowing binge accelerates. BBG

Clients have certainly re-engaged in tech as a result of this macro uncertainty. Chart 2 shows that net exposure on our prime book to Mag7 as a % of Total US exposure is near 22%, which is the highest on record since the start of 2022. Our prime data shows that US Tech stocks in September had their largest % buying in a month since Feb ’25 (and were the only sector net bought on our prime book in the month of September). H/T Shawn Tuteja

Iran has increased the pace of attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz in recent days, just as oil shipments through the world’s most important energy chokepoint approach prewar levels. BBG

US 30-year yields rose 5bps to 5.7%, the highest since 2002, while 10-year yields climbed 4bps to 5.3%; traders extended their short bets against US government bonds. BBG

Germany’s industrial production for Aug came in ahead of expectations at +2% M/M (vs. the Street +0.5%). BBG

Taiwan’s CPI overshoots the consensus at +2.73% headline (vs. the Street +2.4%) and +2.52% core (vs. the Street +2.45%). BBG

Iraq devalued its currency by about 13% versus the dollar as Hormuz disruption hits oil exports. BBG

The Dutch government plans to cut its stake in ABN Amro to 10.5% from 20.7%. BBG

US VP Vance said that Iran must make a "meaningful" reduction in its nuclear enrichment capacity to satisfy US demands and end the war. RTRS

US officials have formally requested additional information from Russia and are coordinating with governments around the world, according to the State Department spokesperson. Newsquawk

France's government is willing to bypass parliament to pass billions in cuts. WSJ

US equities have decoupled from the ex-AI market: since Aug 27, the SPX is +1.28% while SPX ex-AI is -5.19%, with the rolling 30-day gap near its widest since January 2023. GS

FactSet reports 26Q3 set a record for the largest number of positive pre-announcements, led by Tech, Industrials and Healthcare. JPM(Historical earnings: For fiscal 2027 Q2 (period ended 2026-07-26), NVIDIA reported basic EPS of 4.87, diluted EPS of 4.85, net income of USD 118.010 billion, and revenue of USD 177.837 billion. In the prior-year period (ended 2025-07-27), basic EPS was 1.85, diluted EPS was 1.84, net income was USD 45.197 billion, and revenue was USD 90.805 billion. For fiscal 2027 Q1 (period ended 2026-04-26), basic EPS was 2.4, diluted EPS was 2.39, net income was USD 58.321 billion, and revenue was USD 81.615 billion. Consensus expectations: For fiscal 2027 Q3 (event date 2026-11-17), consensus EPS estimate is 2.5253 and revenue estimate is USD 111.318 billion. For fiscal 2027 Q4 (event date 2027-02-23), consensus EPS estimate is 2.7989 and revenue estimate is USD 127.381 billion.)