$BTDR outperforming most neos and powered shell cos this morning in a weak tape. Some of that is BTC exposure, but some may be the loan Bitdeer's tenant launched today -->

Background: Bitdeer leased its Tydal site in Norway to Volta for 16 years, ~$4.7B of rent (though Volta can leave for free after year 10; there's also an 8-year renewal option.) Volta is a GPU cloud startup founded this year by ex-Brookfield execs and backed by a16z, Altimeter, Nvidia and Michael Dell's family office. It rents the GPUs at Tydal to Anthropic on a 6-year, $10B deal (per Bloomberg).

Today Volta started raising ~$5B with JPM and GS at talk of roughly 11%.

>Part buys the GPUs
>Part is cash parked with banks, who promise Bitdeer up to ~$1.3B of rent if Volta doesn't pay. That's about half of the first 10 years of rent
>(Volta's GPU loan is 6-years against a 6 year Anthropic contract, so Volta's lenders get repaid out of Anthropic's checks.)

Bitdeer's side:
>All in, we estimate Bitdeer will have put ~$700-900M into Tydal counting the purchase, the money spent building it out for BTC mining before the pivot, and the ~$500M left to finish.
>Rent averages ~$260M a year after operating costs, so roughly a 30% annual return and a 3-4 year payback
>Bitdeer should now be able borrow inside Volta's 11% since banks now cover half and the asset has less terminal value uncertainty than GPUs themselves.
>My guess is 8.5-10%. Cipher got ~7%, but it had Google behind it
>Rate sensitivity: Every extra 1% costs ~$45M of borrowing room and ~$10M a year of interest on a ~$1B loan
>The bigger swing is how many years lenders will count. If they lend against Volta's full 10-year commitment, Bitdeer can borrow ~$1B, about double what's left to build. If they only count the bank-backed years, it's closer to $600M

Risk left:
>Getting built on time. First half due end of 2026, rest by March 2027
>Years 7-10: Anthropic has to renew or Volta needs a new customer for 6-year old chips; Volta can walk for free after year 10

Easiest ways for BTDR to close the valuation gap with peers:
>Close the Tydal debt and print the terms. Size, rate, length, and how much cash comes back to the parent
>Put out one table per site every quarter with MW leased, term, $/kW, credit support, total invested, spend left and delivery dates. We had to guess at Tydal's all-in cost to write this. Peers get paid a higher multiple partly because you can model them.
>Clean up the cash flow statement and the related party borrowings
>Sign lease #2.