quote: Another open source estimate for Hormuz and Middle East oil flows: | HORMUZ CRUDE OIL TRANSITS SUMMARY 26 Sep - 2 Oct | 7.8mbd 7d average, 64% of pre war level Hormuz-Yanbu-ADCOP CRUDE OIL flows, 5-6mbd deficit KEY INSIGHTS: ▪️Saudi PG exodus cooled down, also visible in loadings which dropped from 6mbd last week to ~2.5mbd this week. It might be connected to the resumption of the Yanbu exports, so I would not drumbeat "the flows are down" yet: total Saudi exports were consistenly 6-7 mbd across PG+Yanbu since June, so I am very sceptical that combined they suddenly dropped to ~4 mbd. ▪️Additionally, there might be some timing smoothing as GoO crude only exits remain around ~10mbd as per @phileeppos - which is in line with my 14D avg. ▪️I generally think PG flows stabilized around ~9-10mbd, a number that is largely consistent between loadings and transits over 14D timeline and what I'd treat as more or less sustainable baseline. With functional Yanbu (lets say 3.5mbd) it implies that PG-Yanbu-Fujairah ecosystem can operate at ~85% of pre-war level sustainably (in spite of simmering pressures and tankers being hit regularly) All details can be now found at https://t.co/WNaWkiQcZ2 As usual: this is my take based on OSINT analytics. You don't have to like or agree with it. Everyone does their own homework.