thoughts on onchain

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onchain bottomed before majors moved & we've had a few 9 fig runners past few months, good sign that ppl are going risk on again & retail is coming back

ansem cashcat ai marscoin niu lai

pons & stonk

all topped at few 100Ms on first push, pons slightly higher as it caught some traction as a launchpad burning substantial % of token supply, i believe we are currently in the most important accumulation phase for onchain coins at the beginning of the bull market, it is the time period in which most still have bear ptsd, but there is growing group of interested capital adding fresh dollars to crypto + devs building again, & eventually these accumulation ranges lead to new highs across the board and are the most profitable trades for most retail as the bull market starts, ansem top holders have been mostly adding into volatility, will lead the first wave of onchain alts again IMO

am betting that we see a lot more creative experimentation with what ppl decide to do with tokens this cycle, & a lot of focus on how to use retail's interest in speculation on building something more sustainable & incentivizing larger attention flywheels, launchpads are so popular because this is effectively what they do, they turn the trading volume generated from ppl interested in getting 100,000x returns on tokens into revenue towards one asset, i dont think we've seen the end of trading volume as a battery for powering new token economies at scale but i would be extremely dismayed if all we got this cycle was just more launchpads

pure-play memecoins im conflicted on, reason being that the new token pairs game is so solved atm, there are serial deployers, snipers, new pairs trenchers who are all operating at scale trying to make $1000 1M times instead of holding something that launched at 0 to billions of dollars in market cap, this is a distinctly different environment than the one that existed last cycle when pepe, bonk, & wif all ran to 5B+, there was not 30k coins launching daily & when runners spawned there was a much higher tendency to bid what was moving than to look for a replica at 1/10000th the price, collective belief is currently very rare, & even rarer when most ppl refuse to bid coins above certain levels, & i dont think the token creation game is going to slow down at all, pump's revenue numbers during the bear market are a clear indicator of this

ive coined the term "memefi" sofar this cycle as a way to describe people combining memetics with the innovative speculation games devs cooked up during defi summer in 2020, & i still believe this is the general direction onchain coins are going this cycle, im very bullish on NFTs making a comeback, & im very bullish on communities aligning and gambling amongst each other, crypto is cool because it enables devs to build in public and share the upside with tokenholders, devs using the newest ai models are going to keep getting better and better while retail is going to continue to speculate more and more, the combination of these two things makes it easy for me to believe that being an active trader onchain will be a great place to be over the next few years

the coins that reach multi-billions need to find a way to manifest collective belief amongst a large group of holders again, & that usually happens when you create something that people have never seen done before so they don't have any ceiling to compare it to