quote: Great $AERO write up, very in line with my mental model. 30% market share for any chain they're on is my very conservative base case, which leads to some pretty hilarious price targets already. Don't even need to assume that RWA volume picks up massively, that they better capture fees with their new design, lose less to MEV, higher yield and therefore more demand to participate in max locked $AERO due to predictive allocation etc. Conservative base case estimates pretty quickly get you to ATH price targets. Anything on top is just icing on the cake. | I’ve been an $AERO enjoyer for a while now. It finally seems to be getting its moment in the sun again, but short-term pumps and people yelling on twitter can distort the timeline’s view of what’s actually happening here. I hope this post helps some people look beyond the last 24hrs of green candles and see the larger picture. Facts: -Aerodrome is the leading DEX on Base. Its sister protocol, Velodrome, built the same model on Optimism. -The model is different from most DEXs: ALL protocol revenue flows back to participants in the ecosystem rather than simply accumulating to a company or treasury. And wherever the “dromes” have operated, they’ve dominated. There isn't a better word to describe their performance where they operate. Currently: -Aerodrome: 61% of Base DEX volume -Velodrome: 56% of Optimism DEX volume On Oct. 21, that same model expands to Ethereum Mainnet, Robinhood Chain, Arbitrum and several others. Let’s NOT assume they repeat 50-60% market share. Let's cut it in half... Assume 30%. Here’s the size of the pie today: Ethereum ~$41.2B/month of DEX volume 30% share = ~$12.4B/month through AERO ≈ $183M/year in gross fees Robinhood Chain ~$52.1B/month 30% = ~$15.6B/month ≈ $231M/year in gross fees Arbitrum ~$6.2B/month 30% = ~$1.85B/month ≈ $27M/year in gross fees Combined: ~$358B/year of additional AERO-routed volume ~$441M/year of gross fees (again, this is ALL passed to aero token lockers) No assumption that tokenized stocks explode. No assumption that more of global finance moves onchain. -No bull-market volume expansion. -No Arc (I'm unsure what this one will become.. could be big, might be noting). -No Ink (also unsure what this can become). Currently, the existing Base/OP business generates roughly $17.5m per month in fees. At 30% share, Ethereum alone would add roughly that much again. Robinhood Chain alone would add even more. Do I think Aero will do better than 30% on these chains? Probably yes. But it doesn't need to, the pie is big enough already. Good job on coms the last couple of weeks by the team. I know they've been dragged heavily on twitter since Novembers incredibly impressive event... now it's time to have a smooth launch and gobble up some market share. Rock n roll.