quote: Iran’s economy is in serious trouble, but it is still a long way from collapse. The rial has fallen to record lows, inflation is soaring, and the economy is contracting. But economic pain should not be confused with strategic capitulation. If President Trump genuinely believes that Iran is on the verge of collapse and that additional economic pressure will force Tehran to surrender, he may soon discover the limits of that assumption. Iran remains capable of imposing significant military and economic costs on U.S. interests and partners in the Gulf. Tehran has also made clear that it is prepared to escalate rather than simply absorb indefinite pressure. But if Trump's rhetoric about Iran's economic weakness is instead intended to prepare the political ground for a deal, essentially arguing that American pressure worked and therefore Washington can now negotiate from a position of strength, that could create an opening. Iran has signaled that it wants a diplomatic exit, but not on the basis of surrender. Any agreement would almost certainly require Washington to address Tehran’s demand for a recognized role in the future management of the Strait of Hormuz. The danger is that Washington begins believing its own narrative. As long as Trump operates within a political reality in which Iran is “collapsing” and America is already “winning,” he risks adopting policies based on assumptions rather than conditions on the ground. Iran is wounded and under enormous pressure, but it is not defeated. More importantly, this is an Iran that appears increasingly willing to demonstrate its remaining military capabilities rather than keep them in reserve. If Washington fails to recognize that distinction, sooner or later the virtual reality it has constructed will collide with the reality of the Gulfl, and that collision could be extremely costly. #iran | Trump: IRAN IS COMPLETELY COLLAPSING!!!

quote: Iran’s economy is in serious trouble, but it is still a long way from collapse. The rial has fallen to record lows, inflation is soaring, and the economy is contracting. But economic pain should not be confused with strategic capitulation. If President Trump genuinely believes that Iran is on the verge of collapse and that additional economic pressure will force Tehran to surrender, he may soon discover the limits of that assumption. Iran remains capable of imposing significant military and economic costs on U.S. interests and partners in the Gulf. Tehran has also made clear that it is prepared to escalate rather than simply absorb indefinite pressure. But if Trump's rhetoric about Iran's economic weakness is instead intended to prepare the political ground for a deal, essentially arguing that American pressure worked and therefore Washington can now negotiate from a position of strength, that could create an opening. Iran has signaled that it wants a diplomatic exit, but not on the basis of surrender. Any agreement would almost certainly require Washington to address Tehran’s demand for a recognized role in the future management of the Strait of Hormuz. The danger is that Washington begins believing its own narrative. As long as Trump operates within a political reality in which Iran is “collapsing” and America is already “winning,” he risks adopting policies based on assumptions rather than conditions on the ground. Iran is wounded and under enormous pressure, but it is not defeated. More importantly, this is an Iran that appears increasingly willing to demonstrate its remaining military capabilities rather than keep them in reserve. If Washington fails to recognize that distinction, sooner or later the virtual reality it has constructed will collide with the reality of the Gulfl, and that collision could be extremely costly. #iran | Trump: IRAN IS COMPLETELY COLLAPSING!!!

Source:https://x.com/staunovo/status/2092104365477601569