Dallas Fed Texas Manufacturing Output Index 15.8 in October vs 29.5 in September
45/100·BShort
n
news10h agonews
Dallas Fed Texas Manufacturing Index of General Business Activity 13.4 in October vs 9.8 in September
35/100·CLong
n
news10h agonews
PRECIOUS-Gold rises as lower oil prices ease inflation fears ahead of Fed meeting
72/100·B+Long+2
n
news11h agonews
Eyes on the Market: At Cost Basis
BTC dropped below $80K on Saturday. BTC fell 1.98% to $80,386 after a low of $79,107, and ETH fell 2.64% to $2,344. Thursday’s selloff erased Wednesday’s run to $84,856.
Oil hit a six-month high. Brent closed Friday at $116.72, its highest close since April 29, as Gulf attacks reached Saudi energy infrastructure. Gold fell 4.31% to $4,004.
The Fed is priced to hold on Wednesday. Polymarket puts a hold on October 28 at 95%. October hike odds peaked at 48% after CPI on October 14 and now sit at 6%.
Treasury companies slowed down. Strategy bought 267 BTC and spent $193.1M buying back STRC ahead of its October 28 shareholder vote and MSCI’s November 11 list.
Liquidations hit both sides. Shorts lost $498.1M as BTC rallied into Wednesday, then longs lost $1.23B from Thursday to Saturday.
IBIT carried BTC ETF flows. BTC ETFs took in $301.2M. IBIT drew $565.7M while every other fund combined lost $264.5M. In October so far, IBIT sits at +$755.2M and the rest at -$1,068.7M.
ETH ETFs posted a fourth straight outflow week. They lost $220.7M this week and $1.22B since September 28, erasing 75% of the year’s inflows.
Oil Up, Everything Else Down
BTC opened Monday at $82,007 and closed Sunday at $80,386, down 1.98%. ETH fell 2.64% to $2,344. Total crypto market cap fell 2.73% to $2.77T.
BTC peaked at $84,856 on Wednesday and closed the day at $84,613, up 3.18% on the week, with ETH up 3.45% to $2,491. Thursday erased both gains as tanker attacks near Hormuz sent Brent higher and Big Tech sold off. From Wednesday’s close, BTC fell 4.08% and ETH 4.45%, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 2.60%, its worst session since June. BTC fell 1.6 times as far as the Nasdaq that day. BTC broke below $80K on Saturday to a low of $79,107, under Glassnode’s estimated $80.2K average cost basis for ETF and treasury-company holders. It lost 1.14% from Friday to Sunday, and ETH lost 2.28% over the same stretch.
Equities fell with crypto, but by less. The S&P 500 was down 0.71% and the Nasdaq Composite 1.34% by Sunday on weekend futures, after closing Friday’s cash session down 0.97% and 1.67%. Brent peaked at $116.72 on Friday and finished the week up 4.93%. Gold fell 4.31% to $4,004.
Events of the Week
Oil hits a six-month high
Houthi attacks hit Saudi targets, including energy infrastructure, and about seven tankers were reported damaged near Hormuz by Thursday. On Wednesday the State Department ordered staff out of Saudi Arabia and cut staffing in Jordan, Lebanon, Qatar and the UAE. Brent closed Friday at $116.72, its highest close since April 29.
The 10-year fell from 5.13% to 4.96% on Thursday, its largest one-day drop since March 2023, then closed Friday back at 5.00%. The 20-year auction cleared at 5.469%, up from 5.420% at the prior auction.
A hold is expected
Polymarket puts a hold at the October 28 FOMC at 95%, with hike odds at 6%. They spent most of the month higher. September payrolls set a low starting point, at 29,000 against 90,000 expected, with unemployment up to 4.2%.
The October 14 CPI print then took hike odds from 22% to 48%, and they settled near 30% within a day. On October 15, PPI beat forecasts and odds still slipped, as New York Fed President John Williams said he had no reason yet to believe the Fed would need to do more. They fell to 13% after Warsh spoke at the IMF and World Bank meetings in Bangkok, where he declined to comment on the October 27–28 meeting and said only that the Fed will deliver price stability. December remains the most likely meeting for a hike, with odds sitting at 77%.
Treasury companies slow down
Strategy bought 267 BTC for $22.1M, spent $193.1M buying back STRC preferred shares, and raised its buyback authorization from $2B to $3B. The STRC shareholder vote is on October 28, and MSCI publishes its index decision on November 11. Strive bought 1,223 BTC for about $100M.
Elsewhere:
BlackRock filed for a buffered BTC ETF.
Franklin Templeton’s BTC dividend-reinvestment ETFs take effect October 27.
Standard Chartered agreed to acquire Zodia Custody.
Germany’s Sparkassen opened crypto trading.
Comment periods closed for the Fed’s GENIUS Act rules on October 19 and the SEC’s Regulation Crypto proposal on October 20.
Polymarket gives Democrats a 92% chance of winning the House and 66% for the Senate ahead of the November 3 midterms, which open the lame-duck window for any second attempt at CLARITY.
Volatility, Positioning and Leverage
BVIV fell 4.8% from 40.76 to 38.82 by Tuesday’s close as BTC rallied, the weekly low. It then rose with the selloff, and closed higher on every day - but Friday - adding about 2% on Thursday and finishing Sunday at 41.13, up 0.9% on the week and 6.0% off the low. That close is within a tenth of the October 14 high, the highest daily close of the past month. Over the month, BVIV is up 10.8% from about 36.9.
Aggregate futures open interest is $138.3B, against $140B last issue, down 1.2%. Coin-denominated BTC open interest has climbed from a low of 619K BTC on October 12 to 671K, still below its average for the year.
Liquidations hit both sides. As BTC rallied to Wednesday’s high, $498.1M of shorts were liquidated from Monday to Wednesday. The selloff then flushed longs. Daily liquidations doubled to an average of $504.2M from Thursday to Saturday, $1.51B in total, with longs taking $1.23B of it, 82%. Saturday’s break below $80K was the largest day at $547.2M.
BTC ETF Inflows Return as ETH Outflows Persist
BTC and ETH ETFs took in $80.5M combined. BTC carried the week, and ETH lost money for a fourth straight week.
BTC: +$301.2M. This week broke the outflow streak of the prior two weeks, but the net figure hides how volatile flows were. Monday to Wednesday brought $1.07B of inflows, then Thursday and Friday lost $774M. Thursday’s -$635.6M was the largest single-day outflow since June 25 (-$691.7M).
IBIT drove the inflow days. It took in $665.2M on Monday, its largest day of 2026 and its biggest since October 7, 2025, and finished the week at +$565.7M. Every other fund combined lost $264.5M. For October to date, IBIT has drawn +$755.2M while the rest of the complex has lost $1,068.7M. Year-to-date flows sit at +$656.3M, down from +$1,021M on September 25.
Our research on ETF flows found that IBIT’s flows predict price no better than the rest of the complex. On the 15 days IBIT took in big money while other funds sold - as it did Monday - BTC fell 0.86% on average over the next five days. Wednesday’s inflow landed on the week’s high and Thursday’s outflow on the same session as the selloff, which fits the broader finding that flows follow price.
The level to watch is about $79.6K, 7% below October 6’s close of $85.5K, the highest close of the past 20 days. Once BTC closes 7% below its 20-day high, ETF flows have historically flipped from +$74M a day to -$72M within a week. Saturday’s $79,107 low broke through that line intraday, but BTC closed Sunday about 0.7% above it. From Monday’s close, the line drops to about $78.1K as early October’s highs leave the window.
ETH: -$220.7M. This is the fourth consecutive outflow week. Since September 28, ETH ETFs have lost $1.22B, taking year-to-date flows from +$1,622M to +$400.5M. ETHA has not posted an inflow in 19 sessions: 15 outflow days, four flat, and -$1.04B in total. Across October, 14 of 17 sessions were outflows.
Key Events for the Week Ahead
Tuesday, October 27
US: FOMC convenes. Durable goods and Conference Board consumer confidence.
Israel: Knesset election.
Wednesday, October 28
US: FOMC decision, 2pm ET. A hold is priced at 95%, so the dissents matter more than the decision.
Canada: BoC decision, 9:45am ET. About 80% priced for a hike.
New Zealand: RBNZ decision.
UK: Autumn Budget.
Australia: Q3 CPI.
Strategy: STRC shareholder vote, 10am ET.
Thursday, October 29
US: Q3 GDP advance estimate and September PCE, 8:30am ET. Consensus is about 3.0% for GDP, 3.6% y/y for headline PCE and 3.1% y/y for core.
Euro area: ECB decision.
Coinbase and Strategy earnings, after the close.
Friday, October 30
Japan: BoJ decision.
Euro area: Q3 GDP, plus flash October CPI for Germany, France, Italy and Spain.(Historical earnings: For fiscal 2026Q2 (period ended 2026-06-30), Coinbase reported basic and diluted EPS of -2.85, net income of USD -0.754 billion, and revenue of USD 2.633 billion.
Consensus expectations: For the upcoming 2026Q3 event on 2026-10-29, consensus EPS estimate is -0.2169 and revenue estimate is USD 1.203 billion.)
78/100·ALong+23
n
news12h agonews
U.S. ECONOMIC GROWTH REBOUNDS IN SEPTEMBER
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index rose to +0.07 from -0.08, signaling growth slightly above its historical trend.
Production strengthened, while employment remained flat and consumer spending and housing weakened.
The key takeaway: U.S. growth remains resilient despite mixed economic signals.
55/100·BLong+1
n
news12h agonews
YARDENI SEES UPCOMING MARKET SELLOFFS AS BUYING OPPORTUNITIES
Ed Yardeni expects further market volatility but remains bullish on U.S. equities, citing strong earnings and economic fundamentals.
Key risks include geopolitical escalation, Fed rate hikes, midterm election uncertainty and AI investment concerns.
Yardeni targets the S&P 500 at 7,900 by year-end and 8,400 by mid-2027, supported by projected 2027 earnings of $425 per share.
Wilson identifies three catalysts: AI financing concerns, midterm elections and tightening financial conditions.
The key takeaway: Liquidity remains the biggest near-term risk, but a potential Fed pivot could trigger a market rebound. Morgan Stanley notes that midterm elections have historically been followed by strong 6–12-month equity returns.
Related tickers: $SPY , $QQQ , $IWM , $TLT
Source: Morgan Stanley — Michael Wilson
72/100·B+Long+6
n
news14h agonews
FED EXPECTED TO HOLD RATES AS DECEMBER HIKE LOOMS
The Federal Reserve is expected to hold rates this week, with markets heavily favoring another hike in December.
Chair Kevin Warsh faces a key communication challenge: explaining the pause despite persistent inflation driven by energy prices and AI infrastructure demand.
The key takeaway: Warsh's messaging could move Treasury yields, the dollar and tech stocks.
Related tickers: $SPY, $QQQ, $TLT, $UUP
72/100·B+Short+2
n
news14h agonews
Fed to hit pause on rate hikes, but maybe not for long
55/100·BLong
n
news14h agonews
OCTOBER HOLD PRICED IN. WALL STREET EYES DECEMBER HIKE.
Goldman Sachs expects the Fed to hold rates this week before raising them 25 basis points in December.
Kalshi traders price a 93% chance of an October hold, versus just 6% for a hike.
U.S. Treasury yields inch lower as investors look ahead to the Fed's rate decision
25/100·CNeutral
n
news16h agonews
美联储即使10月维持利率不变，决议也可能出现分歧？民主党若横扫国会，高盛预计日元或成最大赢家！
20/100·CNeutral
m
meme17h agomeme
ZEROBASE WEEKLY 10.19–10.25
ZBT traded in a narrow band after opening the week near $0.068 on October 19. It pushed toward $0.071–$0.072 midweek on lighter volume, then gave back the gains and settled near $0.068 by the weekend. Spreads stayed tight and liquidity remained orderly, with no sharp liquidity gaps on the pullback from the local highs.
Crypto spent the week consolidating after the early-month slide. Total market capitalization hovered between roughly $2.73T and $2.86T, peaking midweek before settling near $2.70T–$2.73T by Sunday. Bitcoin dominance held in the 59%–60% range.
Bitcoin opened October 19 near $81,800–$82,000 after the prior weekend close around $82,000. It rallied as much as 3%–4% to a weekly high near $84,500–$84,800 on October 21–22, then reversed sharply. Price spent the remainder of the week sliding through the $81,300 area and closed near $80,400 on October 25.
From the October 18 close that is a net decline of roughly 1.5%–2%, with the bulk of the damage coming after the midweek rejection. Ethereum followed the same path. ETH opened near $2,400–$2,410, printed a weekly high around $2,500–$2,525, then faded and finished near $2,340–$2,350. That left ETH roughly flat to slightly lower on the week.
Derivatives and ETF flows told a clear two-phase story. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs drew roughly $1.07 billion from Monday through Wednesday ($527 million on October 19, $23 million on October 20, and $525 million on October 21), the strongest three-day run in nearly a month.
The move reversed on Thursday and Friday with outflows of about $636 million and $138 million respectively, leaving the week with a net inflow of roughly $301 million and ending a two-week streak of outflows. Ether ETFs finished the week with approximately $221 million in net outflows. The late-week redemptions coincided with the price rejection above $84,000 and helped explain why the bounce failed to hold.
Macro and geopolitics remained the dominant backdrop. The Federal Reserve stayed in its blackout period ahead of the October 28 decision, with markets pricing only a low single-digit probability of a hike. The 10-year Treasury yield began the week near 5.15% and finished near 4.95%–4.99%, with a sharp drop of nearly 20 basis points on Thursday—the largest one-day decline in years—as equities sold off and oil volatility rose.
Oil itself stayed elevated amid the ongoing U.S.–Iran conflict, Houthi attacks, and Strait of Hormuz risks. Brent settled the week near $116–$117 after touching six-month highs, while WTI ended around $103. A temporary Russia sanctions waiver and mediation signals early in the week briefly eased prices, but renewed escalation talk later reversed the move. Falling yields and the equity rotation provided some offset for risk assets, yet the oil premium kept financial conditions from easing cleanly.
U.S. equities finished mixed after a volatile week. From the October 16 close, the S&P 500 fell about 0.5% to 7,623.68. The Nasdaq Composite declined roughly 0.7% to 25,955, while the Dow rose about 0.4% to 52,215 and the Russell 2000 gained 2%.
Monday and Wednesday posted modest gains; Thursday saw the largest decline of the week (S&P −1.2%, Nasdaq −2.6%) as Meta and semiconductor names sold off on AI spending concerns. The tape then stabilized on Friday. Leadership rotated away from mega-cap tech toward healthcare, consumer staples, and smaller caps, leaving the equal-weight S&P higher even as the headline index finished lower.
Crypto Fear & Greed began the week in the high-50s (Greed), reached the mid-to-high 60s on the midweek bounce, and then cooled into Neutral territory in the low-to-mid 50s by the weekend. The shift matched the price action: early optimism around ETF inflows and the equity bid faded once the $84,000 rejection and Thursday equity selloff arrived.
On-chain data showed elevated whale activity without a decisive accumulation or distribution signal. Several sessions recorded net exchange inflows in the low thousands of BTC, consistent with supply testing during the midweek rally and subsequent fade.
One of the largest single-day bursts of large-UTXO spending in 2026 occurred around October 23, with more than 230,000 BTC (roughly $21 billion) moving on-chain; most of the coins had been dormant for one to six months and the transfers appeared to be between wallets rather than to exchanges. Mid-tier and whale cohorts remained mixed, with some wallets flipping to distribution while others continued to accumulate.
In summary, October 19–25 was a failed bounce followed by consolidation. Spot prices briefly reclaimed the $84,000 area on the back of the strongest ETF inflow streak in weeks, then surrendered the gains as equities rotated out of AI names and oil remained elevated.
10/100·CNeutral+21
n
news17h agonews
Read more: https://www.wublockchain.xyz/articles/wu-weekly-outlook-microsoft-google-earnings-fed-ecb-boj-decisions-1980(Historical earnings: For fiscal 2026Q3 (period ended 2026-03-31), Microsoft reported basic EPS of 13.19 and diluted EPS of 13.14, with net income of USD 97.983 billion. Prior-year 2026Q3 comparatives were basic EPS 10.03, diluted EPS 9.99, and net income of USD 74.599 billion. In 2026Q2 (period ended 2025-12-31), basic EPS was 8.91, diluted EPS 8.87, and net income USD 66.205 billion, versus prior-year basic EPS 6.56, diluted EPS 6.53, and net income USD 48.775 billion.
Consensus expectations: For the upcoming 2027Q1 event on 2026-10-28, consensus EPS is 4.7184 and consensus revenue is USD 90.707 billion.)
20/100·CNeutral+2
n
news17h agonews
WuBlockchain Weekly Outlook: Cloud revenue is soaring. But AI infrastructure isn't free. Azure grew 43%, Google Cloud 82%, and AWS 37%. Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon now face an earnings test as the Fed, ECB and BOJ decide rates. Strong growth alone may not protect tech valuations.(Historical earnings: For fiscal 2026Q2 (period ended 2026-06-30), Amazon reported basic EPS of 8.64, diluted EPS of 8.53, and net income of USD 135.281 billion.
Consensus expectations: For the upcoming 2026Q3 event on 2026-10-29, consensus EPS is 1.9579 and consensus revenue is USD 202.203 billion.)