quote: With all due respect to Washington's efforts to shape the policies of Iraq's new government, one reality remains unchanged: Iran maintains a deep and active presence inside Iraq, both directly and through its network of armed partners.
Recent reports suggest that the actors involved may not necessarily be the well-known groups such as Kataib Hezbollah or al-Nujaba. It is entirely plausible that some operations are being conducted by networks working directly under the guidance of IRGC officers inside Iraq, allowing Tehran greater deniability while preserving operational control.
At the same time, there is growing evidence of close coordination between the Houthis and Iraqi Shiite armed groups. It is therefore possible that Yemeni operatives based in Iraq also played a role in planning or facilitating recent attacks, including target selection.
The attack launched from Iraq toward Jordan reinforces a broader trend: Iraq has become one of Iran's most important platforms for projecting power through proxies beyond Iranian territory.
The picture that emerges is not of isolated actors, but of an increasingly coordinated network linking Iran, the Houthis, and Iraqi armed groups in pursuit of shared strategic objectives.
The Houthis show no sign of backing down. They appear determined to continue targeting Saudi energy infrastructure until Riyadh lifts the blockade they believe is being imposed against them.
In this context, attacks originating from both Yemen and Iraq could intensify, further increasing pressure on Saudi Arabia. Riyadh may soon face a difficult strategic choice: absorb continued attacks in the hope of avoiding a broader regional war, or respond militarily despite the risk of significant escalation.
From the Houthis' perspective, the calculus appears straightforward. They seem convinced they have little left to lose and are therefore unlikely to be deterred from continuing to strike strategic Saudi targets if they believe doing so advances their objectives.
#IranWar | BREAKING: Saudi Arabia says it intercepted a number of drones targeting oil facilities in the Eastern Province over the last few hours. Riyadh says the drones were launched by Iranian-backed militias from Iraqi territory.
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reply DEFENSE NAMES BUCKED THE TREND AS LOCKHEED MARTIN AND RTX RAISED SALES FORECASTS, INTEL'S STRONG OUTLOOK AIDED CHIPS AND AMD LAUNCHED NEW AI CHIPS, WHILE THE DOLLAR ROSE AND CRYPTO FELL.
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$INTC and $AMD to sign CPU LTAs with Chinese customers for AI DCs (Reuters).
- Prices of some CPU products have risen more than 40% in China since the start of the year from sources.
- Month-on-month increases topping 10% for some products
CPUs were already a bottleneck, following CPU ratios due to AI inference...
But the broader trend of LTAs seems to be appearing from:
- Memory, with $MU, Samsung, $SNDK, and SK Hynix signing DRAM/NAND LTAs.
- Photonics, with $LITE, $COHR signing EML LTAs. And recent Trendforce reports that $AMD and hyperscalers are now pursuing CW LTAs.
And I'm sure there's many more from MLCCs to all the way to substrates.
+1 for the bottleneck investors... hard to be a "bubble that pops" if you have take or pay demand spanning multiple years.
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quote: havent seen one person from OAI or Ant address Jon's argument here.
the point is simple: the USG does not owe either of the large labs a business model. if the economics of selling tokens don't work due to distillation/cheap clones/Chinese AI magick, the American enterprise and consumer will be A-OK. they will benefit from hyperdeflation in the cost of digital cognition just like everyone else. the hyperscalers will be fine. it's just OAI and Ant that won't be – in their current forms at least. if they are willing to adapt, they can develop new business models.
so what if the token merchants don't do well? the neoclouds will be fine. the internet companies will be fine. the consumer gets cheaper queries. the enterprise will still incorporate AI.
the only world in which this isn't fine, is if you hold a quasi-religious belief that we're on the cusp of a kind of AI rapture in which one of the labs Logs On And Wins Forever, namely hits RSI and we enter some kind of sublime post economic society run by GEOTUS Dario. so to accept that Ant's business model might be suboptimal or impaired by China's commoditization is to accept the unacceptable; namely that someone other than the anointed might kick off the runaway feedback loop and that they, instead might log on and win forever.
this appears to explain the discrepancy in reaction to Deepseek Moment v254 Kimi edition. everyone has bag bias, of course. but leaving that aside, most people think it's pretty much ok if Ant and OAI suffer margin compression due to Chinese distillation / industrial sabotage via open weight models. the American economy is not reliant on those two firms. they could blink out of existence and we would pretty much be ok. the AI capex supercycle will still produce tokens, closed weight or not. American firms will consume those tokens. OAI and Ant would probably still scratch a living, due to the latent preference of some token consumers to buy domestic and face off against a known entity.
this is only unacceptable if you think AI is strongly path dependent; that is, if it really matters who the market leader is when AI reaches a breakout level of capability. this is true both in the good case (superintelligence, singularity, etc) and the bad case (this is the essence of safetyism). but if this sounds more like wishcasting than forecasting, you probably don't mind the labs being pressured economically.
now you can clearly tell which side I'm on. I think AI is a fantastic technology which is hyperdeflating the cost of cognition and will fundamentally reshape society but there are real reasons why it wont diffuse as fast as the AGI people think it well. I would prefer an American firm achieve RSI relative to a Chinese one but I think either outcome would be suboptimal; better that we don't end up with a closed oligopoly composed of Ant/OAI. China by crushing the margins of the labs is doing everyone a favor by eliminating their pricing power and empowering the buyers of AI, namely, everyone.
objections:
-but you can't celebrate America losing to China!
- in my opinion this is a minor victory for China but not necessarily an enduring one. USA still has the chip, datacenter, and neocloud advantage, not to mention, it still has the best frontier models. Chinese labs releasing open weight models have no business model of their own. so even if they hurt the US labs, they have nothing to show for it. it's profoundly unlike their successful dumping campaigns with solar panels, batteries, drones, etc where they eventually built big domestic industries. (if China kills American AI with open weight models, we can even the score the moment they try and release a proprietary model). even if open weights win, the USA can still leverage AI extremely well and potentally retain the aggregate compute advantage. yes, the US would be more assured of victory if OAI or Ant won forever, but I don't know if I want to live in that world.
- no one will ever train a model again
- this is where I think the concern is unwarranted. let's say distillation really is a golden bullet and kills big training runs. that doesn't advantage either China or the US. that's a stalemate. not to mention, the trend seems to be less focusing less on massive pretraining budgets and more on finetuning for specific genres of tasks, thinking machines style. and lastly I find it hard to believe that training runs will stop altogether. the labs can probably develop anti-distillation techniques. you could adopt a whitelist style permission for everyone using your model. different consortia could be put together to share in the cost of training a model, if it is seen as too expensive for an individual firm.
- the AI buildout is path dependent and OAI/Ant are now load bearing GDP infrastructure
- it would be a significant setback for investors if they had to cancel their IPOs and suffered big markdowns, and some neoclouds with lab based RPOs would suffer for a while, but everyone would be fine, really. does Microsoft need OAI or Ant? does Meta? does Google? ordinary Americans have ~no exposure to either OAI or Ant. would the world want any less compute if it turns out to be another order of magnitude cheaper? certainly not. as we all know at this point, consumption would go up. I don't think the economy is so dependent on the labs that it couldn't handle their margins compressing. | Look I think I've figured this whole thing out. Follow along as I try to steelman, and tell me where I'm wrong.
OpenAI guys on the TL believe that if they can't sell metered inference tokens at a sufficient markup, then they will not have enough of a business to fund the next big training run.
They are surely correct about this.
They believe that if people release powerful open models, this will probably fatally impact their ability to sell inference tokens at enough of a markup to fund the next big training run.
They are surely correct about this, too.
They also think that if they cannot fund the next big training run (again, by selling inference tokens at a markup), then NOBODY will be able to fund the next big training run because it means there's no money in it.
This last bit seems to me & many others to be not just wrong, but totally bananas in a "guy, have seen the actual software industry and how it works in real life?!" kind of way.
There are a lot of ways to monetize software out there in the world. Insofar as inference can add new capabilities to software, there will be lots of ways to monetize it.
In other words, if you're telling me, "we can't have a business selling inference if X or Y thing keeps happening," then my only response is, "ok well that sucks for you... sounds like that's a terrible business."
But if you're telling me that "selling metered inference tokens is a terrible business" is tantamount to "nobody will fund big training runs that are upstream of more effective & economically valuable inference tokens", then I think you are extremely wrong and should get out more and learn about other parts of the software ecosystem.
Workplace automation is huge and will be even bigger in the future as models get better. You can sell workplace automation very profitably in lots of different packages (depending on the workplace and the type of automation). Like, I'm sorry that you really really want to be in the metered inference token business and not the workplace automation business, but them's the breaks. The market wants what the market wants. We all need to live in reality and not beg for Uncle Sam to save us all from open source -- because that was already tried and it didn't work.