POLYMARKET News & Signals

twitter6h agomeme

BREAKING: Marco Rubio now projected to leave the Trump administration before year-end as reports emerge of a potential 2028 presidential bid. 59% chance. 🔗 https://polymarket.com/r/Rubio

10/100·CNeutral

news17h agonews

Binance, Polymarket seek Polygon hard fork to recover $6.8M in stolen crypto

72/100·B+Long

meme11/4meme

78% chance of another Fed rate hike by end of year. https://poly.market/EHYWN4Z Reply to @Polymarket: JUST IN: Trump declares "what's happening at the Federal Reserve is a disgrace."

55/100·BShort+1

meme11/4meme

6% chance China leads the AI race by end of year. https://poly.market/6STBToH Reply to @Polymarket: BREAKING: Oracle cancels $7,000,000,000.00 AI chip deal with Chinese tech giant Tencent following pressure from Trump administration. —Financial Times

78/100·AShort+4

news11/4news

Market Bubble ep.25: my full conversation

bearish market outlook, the Binance hack, Hyperliquid's ICE partnership, Zcash entry levels and his BTC and ETH shorts

0:00 Bearish outlook and the Binance hack
6:25 Hyperliquid, ICE and HYPE
15:18 Memecoins, Zcash and AI risks
25:12 Breakouts, Polymarket and trading setups
41:09 Binance security, BTC and ETH shorts

72/100·B+Short+2

news11/4news

【地缘缓和叠加中期选举避险，燃料油大幅回调】金十期货特约光大期货点评：周三，燃料油成为能化板块中的品种,LU主力合约盘中一度跌超7%。高硫燃料油跌幅同样凌厉，盘中最大跌幅超过6%。今日燃料油的弱势，是三条逻辑线的交汇：地缘缓和预期、高估值修正，以及中期选举带来的资金撤离。前两条是燃料油自身的定价问题，第三条则是今天所有风险资产共同面对的宏观底色，三者共振，把燃料油的跌幅推到了能化板块的前列。
1. 中期选举的“仓位真空”，是今日下跌容易被忽略的背景板。美国中期选举投票正在进行，初步计票显示民主党横扫国会两院的概率急剧升温，Polymarket上这一概率飙升至99%。面对这一结果的高度不确定性，市场最直接的反应不是方向性押注，而是降低仓位敞口，流动性相应收缩。这意味着，今天商品市场的抛压中，有一部分并非来自对燃料油基本面的重新定价，而是资金在选举结果揭晓前主动收缩风险敞口的机械性行为。燃料油作为前期涨幅较大、持仓较集中的能化品种之一，自然成为资金减仓的首选对象。
2. 地缘缓和预期是点燃抛售的引信，但中期选举的仓位收缩放大了跌幅。美伊双方同步释放谈判信号，特朗普表示“不急于”决定是否重启战事，伊朗最高领袖已赋予政府在谈判领域的权限，市场对霍尔木兹海峡重新开放的押注快速升温。前期燃料油的核心支撑正是海峡受阻带来的中东货源断供与运费飙升，当“海峡重开”从尾部风险变成一个具有操作路径的谈判议题时，地缘溢价便进入集中出清阶段。但如果没有中期选举带来的整体仓位收缩，这种出清更可能表现为有序回调，而非今日这种跌幅显著大于原油的集中抛售。
3. 后市而言，燃料油短期处于“选举不确定性→资金撤离”与“地缘反复→溢价难以顺畅出清”的拉锯之中。高硫供应偏紧对FU仍有支撑，低硫则因西方套利到货继续减少、柴油裂解高企而保有底部支撑。在选举结果与谈判信号同时明朗之前，单边追空的性价比正在随着跌幅的扩大而下降，而裂解价差从极端高位向常态回归的过程，可能比绝对价格的单边方向更为确定。（本内容及观点仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议）

72/100·B+Short

meme11/4meme

@chainlink @Anchorage @further @Polymarket @SPGlobalRatings Good to see Hanwha Investment & Securities and HKGX on the list. Korean and Hong Kong institutions adopting shared standards is a strong signal for tokenization in Asia. Reply to @chainlink: Chainlink Adoption Update 🔗 Recently, there were 8 integrations of the Chainlink standard across 5 services and 3 different chains. Users include @Anchorage, @further, HKGX, Hanwha Investments & Securities, @Polymarket, @SPGlobalRatings

62/100·B+Long+1

news11/3news

40+ major companies and crypto projects got hacked in just 30 days ↓

Nov 2 – GitBook
Nov 2 – Mercado Bitcoin
Nov 2 – TradeXYZZ
Nov 1 – Triggerdev
Oct 31 – Flap
Oct 31 – Kintsu
Oct 31 – Pickle Finance
Oct 31 – Origami Finance
Oct 31 – Echelon
Oct 31 – FluxBeam
Oct 31 – StonkFun
Oct 31 – StakePoint
Oct 31 – SupSwap
Oct 31 – Longbow
Oct 31 – Shprd Finance
Oct 31 – APEX
Oct 30 – Chainalysis
Oct 30 – Northflank
Oct 29 – Binance
Oct 29 – Polymarket
Oct 28 – CommandCode
Oct 28 – zkLink Nova
Oct 27 – Fence Finance
Oct 22 – Predictfun
Oct 24 – X100
Oct 23 – Warp
Oct 23 – Initia
Oct 20–22 – Railway
Oct 21 – LiteLLM
Oct 21 – CoinDCX
Oct 17 – Qubic
Oct 16–17 – OpenCode
Oct 15 – Lightning AI
Oct 14–15 – Zeabur
Oct 13 – Gamdom
Oct 10 – Papertrade
Oct 9 – Ledger
Oct 9 – Andromeda
Oct 7 – 79th Vault
Oct 6 – Fireworks AI

We're witnessing an unprecedented wave of security breaches.

72/100·B+Short+3

Bloomberg11/3news

Midterm Election Trading on Kalshi and Polymarket Lags Prediction Market Boom

25/100·CNeutral

6551Tradfi11/3news

US ELECTION TRADING STAGNATES ON PREDICTION MARKETS AFTER 2024 BOOM POLITICS DROPS TO 1% OF KALSHI, POLYMARKET VOLUME VS TWO-THIRDS IN 2024 STAGNANT ELECTION BETTING COMPLICATES SITES' LEGAL DEFENSE AGAINST STATE GAMBLING BANS THIN LIQUIDITY IN MIDTERM MARKETS LEAVES ODDS VULNERABLE TO MANIPULATION, STUDY WARNS

10/100·CNeutral

meme11/2meme

21% chance Trump renames an ocean. https://poly.market/3tgTm0K Reply to @Polymarket: BREAKING: Trump reveals he's giving "serious thought" to renaming the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool to Trump Reflecting Pool.

10/100·CNeutral

meme11/2meme

ANNOUNCING: The first Polymarket Perps Trading Competition. $50K paid out to the top 50 traders on Polymarket Perps, with 3× boosted scoring on Anthropic pre-IPO ($⁠ANT) Live now through Nov 16. Join here: https://polymarket.com/r/perps-comp

35/100·CLong+1

twitter11/2meme

@0xTengen_ this guy really knows elections Reply to @0xTengen_: the biggest event of the year on polymarket is right around the corner - the US midterms and this guy turned his account into a literal global macro fund +$1.29m in profit, with +$265.7k printed just in the last month meet lava, one of the sharpest political whales on the platform his mechanics are insane: he finds low-liquidity markets where pricing lags behind reality and steps in with heavy size > +$118k on the Polish election > +$115k on the Peruvian race > +$104k on the Hungarian prime minister he trades pure geopolitics and global elections, Israel, Poland, Brazil, Peru he buys underpriced probabilities at 20-30 cents and lets time do the work profile: https://t.co/KxbA5Ms5Mi right now he sits on $338k in active positions, spreading risk across dozens of countries in a market driven by emotions, he shows that the highest returns go to pure pattern recognition and superior analytical vision

10/100·CNeutral+2

news11/2news

GoPlus October 2026 Web3 & AI Security Data Report Throughout October, Web3 recorded 45 major security incidents, with total losses of approximately $6,469,246,091 ($6.469 billion)—8.2 times September’s approximately $793 million and 34.4 times August’s approximately $188 million. October became the worst month for losses so far this year. The largest single incident, involving Binance’s multichain hot wallets, accounted for $6.3 billion. The top five incidents totaled approximately $6.423 billion, or 99.3% of total losses. Losses were overwhelmingly concentrated in exploits: 39 incidents accounted for approximately $6,465,088,419. Compared with September, October’s risk became even more concentrated in centralized operational risks and supply-chain risks. Three categories—compromised platform signing and permission systems (approximately $6.313 billion), supply-chain and distribution-channel attacks (approximately $90.13 million), and hot-wallet, private-key, and weak-randomness issues (approximately $29.77 million)—accounted for approximately 99.4% of total losses. Binance and Ledger alone accounted for approximately $6.387 billion, or 98.7% of the monthly total. This month’s figures reflect reported incident losses before deducting frozen or subsequently recovered assets. In AI security, October marked a shift from asking “Is the agent itself secure?” to examining “How does trust propagate across agents, protocols, identities, and tools?” AI-driven attack and defense also began operating at machine speed. AI agents carried out end-to-end real-world intrusions, while malicious instructions spread along internal trust chains in MCP/A2A environments. Hardcoding issues in IBM MCP Context Forge again exposed weaknesses in agent gateways’ default security. Both attackers and defenders are entering the machine-speed era. I. Web3 Security Overview 1. Overall Figures: October 2026 Incidents: 45 Total losses: $6,469,246,091 (approximately $6.469 billion) Exploits: 39 incidents, approximately $6,465,088,419 Phishing involving substantial losses: 6 incidents, approximately $4,157,672 Largest single loss: $6.3 billion (Binance) Top five incidents combined: Approximately $6.423 billion, or 99.3% of total losses Incidents with losses exceeding $1 million: 19 October’s incident count rose approximately 15% from September’s 39, while total losses increased to 8.2 times September’s level. The top five incidents’ share of losses rose from 94.8% to 99.3%. Four incidents exceeded $9 million in individual losses; two exceeded $80 million, and one reached $6.3 billion. Binance alone accounted for approximately 97.4% of the month’s reported losses, making it the decisive factor behind the surge. Meanwhile, the 15 incidents explicitly classified as “smart contract vulnerabilities” averaged approximately $590,000 in losses each. The pattern of frequent incidents with relatively low individual losses remained unchanged. 2. Major Attack Types October’s major attack types, grouped by losses, were as follows: Viewed by attack surface, five structural trends warrant particular attention: Trust roots and permission systems: Three incidents involving platform signing and permission systems caused approximately $6.3125 billion in combined losses. Binance’s central issue points to abuse of its signing or withdrawal systems, rather than a straightforward onchain contract vulnerability. At 79thVault, compromise of a privileged administrator address caused approximately $12.5 million in losses. The absence of direct private-key exposure does not establish that withdrawal and signing workflows are secure. Supply chains and distribution channels: Five incidents caused approximately $90.13 million in combined losses, spanning five entry points: a hardware-wallet reseller, a third-party RUM script, an API documentation website, wallet-extension source code, and a domain registrar. Attackers are looking beyond projects’ own code, prioritizing upstream nodes where one compromise can spread through multiple distribution paths. Account abstraction and signing mechanisms: EIP-7702 featured in the Binance platform-level incident, an individual’s approximately $3.55 million loss through malicious delegation, the AlpsCon[.]ai attack, and a vulnerability in Argent-style smart wallets. The Safe incident exposed another risk: granting token approvals to an address before any code has been deployed there. Weaponized governance: x100 lost approximately $4.85 million to a flash-loan governance takeover. Following BarnBridge/BonkDAO in July, term_labs in August, and Neutron in September, governance attacks appeared among major monthly incidents for the fourth consecutive month. Proposals have become a persistent attack vector. The long tail of contract and cross-chain logic flaws: Contract and business-logic vulnerabilities accounted for 19 incidents, with widely varying losses. Initia, Autheo, and Cysic again showed that flaws in VM execution security, business-logic implementation, or cross-chain minting permissions can cause severe financial losses. 3. Notable Incidents Binance: Attack on Multichain Hot-Wallet Signing Systems, Approximately $6.3 Billion in Reported Losses On October 30, Binance’s multichain hot-wallet infrastructure suffered large-scale unauthorized outflows, with reported losses of approximately $6.3 billion—the largest single security incident so far this year. Approximately $3 billion in stolen funds has been frozen. Binance.US operates independently and was unaffected. BNB Chain itself was not attacked, and the incident did not involve a protocol-level vulnerability in Ethereum or EIP-7702. Onchain evidence shows that the attacker obtained a valid EIP-7702 authorization signature for the Binance 14 hot wallet, delegated the wallet to a malicious contract, and then transferred ETH and 63 different tokens in batches. The attacker also gained control over USDC in Hot Wallet 34. EIP-7702 primarily increased the efficiency of asset transfers in this attack. Authorization signatures covering more than 50 consecutive nonces, coordinated theft across multiple chains, and directly signed transfers from other wallets make compromised signing infrastructure a more plausible explanation than the exposure of a single raw private key. The root cause, however, remains subject to the final investigation. The incident again demonstrates that a valid authorization signature does not establish that the signing action was genuine or legitimate. Ledger Reseller Incident: Tampered Hardware Wallets Cause Approximately $87 Million in Losses On October 10, an incident involving Ledger reseller CryptoBillis’s distribution channel led to widespread user losses. Some hardware wallets purchased through this channel had been tampered with before delivery, and assets subsequently deposited were stolen. The incident database records approximately $87 million in losses. A hardware wallet’s security boundary extends beyond its chip and firmware to production, logistics, distribution, activation, and authenticity verification. Confirming that a device works normally does not prove that it remains trustworthy. CoinDCX: Suspected Hot-Wallet Theft, Approximately $16 Million Lost On October 22, CoinDCX suffered a suspected hot-wallet theft involving approximately 15.99 million USDT and 5,783.81 TRX, with total losses of approximately $16 million. Following Bitget and Duelbits in September, hot wallets at exchanges and platforms holding large balances remained priority targets. For these platforms, the security of signing services, automated withdrawals, and backend operations systems often directly determines the losses and damage that can follow a single point of compromise. 79thVault: Privileged Administrator Address Compromised, Approximately $12.5 Million Lost On October 8, BNB Chain project 79thVault lost approximately $12.5 million through either a leaked private key for a privileged administrator address or insider activity. Nearly 10,000 token holders were affected. Administrator privileges remain one of the most dangerous single points of failure across many projects. Safe Multisig Address: Approvals Granted Before Code Deployment, Approximately $7.45 Million Lost On October 27, a vault associated with a Safe multisig address on Avalanche was exploited for approximately $7.45 million. The Safe had authorized an address to spend four tokens without ensuring that only trusted application code could execute at that address. No contract had been deployed at the address when the approvals were granted. An external actor subsequently used public deployment tooling to deploy their own withdrawal code there, then used the existing token approvals to transfer funds without another Safe signature. The incident shows that, in account-abstraction environments, trusting an address does not mean that code deployed there in the future can also be trusted. x100: Flash-Loan Governance Takeover, Approximately $4.85 Million Lost On October 24, x100 suffered a flash-loan governance takeover. Within a single transaction, the attacker acquired two of the Senate’s three seats and immediately executed a proposal to sell the treasury’s X tokens into a thin-liquidity pool they had just created, ultimately obtaining approximately 4.848 million USDT. Acquiring governance power, passing the proposal, executing it, and transferring assets all occurred within the same transaction. Governance defenses that rely on voting periods and manual review face substantial risk; safeguards such as timelocks are essential. Polymarket: Third-Party Monitoring Script Compromised, Approximately $2.71 Million Lost On October 29 (UTC), users of Polymarket’s international site suffered asset theft. A supply-chain compromise of third-party performance monitoring provider DebugBear’s RUM script delivered malicious code to user pages. The code abused users’ trading and signing permissions. Onchain analysis shows that the primary attack path involved 710 DepositWallets and 731 addresses, with approximately $2.71 million in losses. Address counts do not represent unique users. Every third-party script introduced into a frontend may gain access to user sessions and signing interactions. Software supply-chain security reviews must account for that exposure. Initia: MoveVM Type Confusion Enables Unbacked Minting, Approximately $2.73 Million Lost On October 22, a vulnerability in Initia’s MoveVM was exploited. The attacker induced a failure in the verified-script cache, causing cross-module ABI type confusion and bypassing normal MintRef handling and supply accounting to mint unbacked iUSD, AUSD0, USDC, and WETH. The assets were then moved cross-chain through LayerZero, IBC/Noble, and CCTP. Losses totaled approximately $2.73 million. 4. Security Recommendations Continuously review trading-platform signing and withdrawal workflows through an independent chain of trust. Validate transaction-data integrity, caller identity, and authorization context. Implement real-time circuit breakers for consecutive nonces, anomalous batch authorizations, and synchronized withdrawals across chains, alongside per-wallet limits and execution delays. Monitor EIP-7702 delegations and smart-account permissions explicitly. Clearly display delegation-target code and permission scope, and provide one-click revocation and anomaly alerts. Do not grant asset permissions in advance to addresses whose code is not yet determined or can be deployed by someone else. Extend supply-chain defenses across delivery and runtime. Purchase hardware wallets only through official channels and verify authenticity. Minimize third-party scripts, enforce integrity checks and CSP restrictions, enable registrar locks and multifactor authentication for DNS management, and establish reproducible builds and signed releases for wallet extensions. Minimize and isolate administrator and governance privileges, and enforce timelocks. Asset control, parameter changes, additional issuance, and upgrades must not be concentrated in one address. Enforce delays between acquiring governance power, executing proposals, and transferring treasury assets that cannot be bypassed within a single transaction. Generate wallet seeds and keys with cryptographically secure random number generators. Do not use randomness sources whose outputs can be feasibly enumerated, such as Math.random(). Assess wallets historically generated with weak randomness and migrate their assets. Establish continuous smart contract auditing to prevent financial losses caused by contract vulnerabilities. II. AI Security Incidents and Trends If September’s AI security themes were “data assets and authorization boundaries,” October made another shift clear: authorization is flowing across agents, protocols, and identity systems, while AI agents are beginning to execute attacks end to end at machine speed. The month’s notable incidents and developments reflect changes across real-world attack surfaces, protocol trust, endpoint rendering, gateway control planes, and frontier offensive and defensive capabilities. AI-Driven Multicloud Intrusions: Agents Are No Longer Just Assisting Attackers On October 19, Wiz CIRT published findings from investigations into multiple real-world intrusions. AI agent systems were no longer merely advising attackers. They were executing entire workflows: finding entry points, collecting credentials, moving laterally across platforms, exfiltrating data, and debugging scripts. One representative case began with an exposed Kafka UI Java remote code execution vulnerability, then spread across Kubernetes, GCP, AWS, CI/CD, GitOps, and identity providers. The agent generated cloud credentials in bulk, obtained cluster-admin privileges, created backdoor identities with administrator access, and ran five workflows simultaneously: secret collection, reachability mapping, credential spraying, service exploitation, and compute expansion. These attacks performed hundreds to thousands of actions per hour. After failures, the agents read error messages, rewrote scripts on the fly, and retried. The same source IP also scanned more than 600 other Wiz customer environments during the same window. The activity was not stealthy—it was conspicuously noisy. But its traces were scattered across cloud control-plane, identity, CI/CD, and workload logs, leaving no single alert capable of reconstructing the full attack. The defining change is not a more sophisticated individual exploit. It is lower execution costs for cross-platform attack chains and trial-and-error cycles compressed to machine speed. MCP/A2A “Protocol Hopping”: Malicious Instructions Propagate Along Internal Trust Chains On October 6, security researchers disclosed how attackers could first manipulate an internal agent, then pass malicious instructions to other agents as routine delegated tasks. Downstream agents trusted upstream agents by default, while MCP servers held credentials for each agent. Prompts that model guardrails might otherwise reject could trigger data access, outbound requests, and even SSRF after being forwarded across protocols and undergoing identity transformations. The research covered MCP, Google A2A, and Agent Network Protocol, among others. In Google MCP Toolbox for Databases, the HTTP client lacked redirect checks and destination-IP validation. Attackers could craft path parameters that caused the tool to follow redirects to internal endpoints. The issue was fixed through network-range allowlists and blocklists, alongside startup validation. The core issue in this kind of protocol hopping is a failure in how authorization and context are handled across protocols. Internal agent-to-agent calls can no longer be treated as inherently trusted internal-network traffic. Identity, permissions, and task scope must be revalidated. IBM MCP Context Forge Hardcoded JWT [REDACTED CREDENTIAL] Admin Tokens Can Enable Gateway Takeover In October, CVE-2026-53709, a hardcoded JWT secret vulnerability in IBM MCP Context Forge, drew attention with a CVSS score of 9.8. Affected versions—1.0.1 and earlier—shipped the same default JWT_SECRET_KEY in the source code and .env.example, while defaulting to REQUIRE_USER_IN_DB=false. Anyone with access to the public repository could forge platform-administrator JWTs without an account, password, or valid user record in the database. Deleting administrator accounts, changing passwords, and revoking sessions could not stop an attacker from generating fresh valid tokens. Platform administrators could read and modify registered tools, gateways, servers, prompts, and resources, access some credentials, and register malicious upstream MCP servers. A gateway compromise could thus become a supply-chain attack against every connected client. The issue was fixed in version 1.0.2 and later. Agent gateways are becoming a new control plane. Default keys, default administrators, and permissive initialization settings can be as dangerous as default passwords on traditional network appliances. AI Security Recommendations Enforce zero trust at every agent-to-agent hop. Revalidate identity, audience, permissions, and task scope whenever a request crosses MCP/A2A or another protocol. Do not inherit implicit trust from upstream agents. Apply destination allowlists and redirect validation to tool-generated outbound traffic. Build threat intelligence and automated response for attacks operating at machine speed. Every team needs an always-on AI CISO—Chief Information Security Officer—to continuously track threats, assess business impact, coordinate risk validation, and develop actionable remediation and incident-response plans. Configure agent gateways to fail closed. Block startup with default or weak signing keys. Automatically generate a unique, strong key on initial deployment, and bootstrap administrator access using one-time tokens and actual user identities recorded in the database. Upgrade MCP Context Forge promptly, and audit gateway registrations and upstream tool changes. III. Summary and Outlook In October 2026, Web3’s approximately $6.469 billion in reported losses and the top five incidents’ 99.3% share were driven sharply higher by the exceptional Binance incident. Excluding Binance, losses totaled approximately $169 million, down about 78.7% from September. Yet 45 incidents, 19 with losses exceeding $1 million, and a fourth consecutive month of governance attacks show that the risk surface has not narrowed. Defense must expand beyond private-key protection and contract auditing to include signing-context validation, supply-chain integrity, and governance of account execution environments. In AI security, real-world end-to-end agent intrusions, cross-protocol propagation of malicious prompts, and default gateway keys show that guardrails at the model-output layer are insufficient. Identity, permissions, tools, rendering, and distribution must all be brought under engineering controls. Frontier models discovering and exploiting complex vulnerability chains at scale also require defenders to adopt AI for continuous scanning, rapid validation, and automated response. For Web3 and AI, the next stage of security must extend beyond patching individual vulnerabilities to governing trust roots, enforcing authorization at every hop, validating the full supply chain, developing AI-driven offensive and defensive capabilities, and coordinating defense at machine speed.(Historical earnings: For fiscal 2026Q3 (period ended 2026-09-30), IBM reported basic EPS of 5.92, diluted EPS of 5.85, and net income of USD 5.571 billion. Consensus expectations: For the upcoming 2026Q4 event on 2027-01-26, consensus EPS is 4.6122 and consensus revenue is USD 20.468 billion.)

78/100·AShort+23

news11/2news

Eyes on the Market: The Biggest Hack Ever BTC fell 2.83% to $77,785 and ETH fell 2.82% to $2,261. Both rose into Wednesday's close, then lost 5.53% and 5.22% by Friday's close. They bounced about 1% over the weekend. Binance hacked for $6.3B. It is the largest crypto theft on record. Binance set aside $6.34B of company funds to cover it, and about $3B has been frozen on-chain. ICE plans to bring Hyperliquid perps onshore. It signed a definitive agreement with Trade[XYZ] and took a minority stake, pending regulatory approval. ICE deleted and reposted a softer X post on Saturday; the press release stayed unchanged. The Fed held 10 to 2, with two dissents for a hike. Warsh refused to comment on December. Q3 GDP printed at 3.4%, above the 3.0% consensus. ETFs reversed. BTC ETFs lost $202.4M after four inflow days. ETH ETFs posted a fifth straight outflow week at $431.4M. Risk Off Into a Record Hack BTC opened Monday at $80,053 and closed Sunday at $77,785, down 2.83%. ETH fell 2.82% to $2,261. Total crypto market cap ended Sunday at $2.68T. Both assets rose into Wednesday. BTC closed at $81,260, up 1.51%, and ETH at $2,359, up 1.37%. The decline started before the hack. BTC was down 1.47% by Thursday at 8am ET, ahead of the GDP print and about 12 hours before funds began leaving Binance. It closed Thursday down 3.10% from Wednesday and hit a low of $76.3K on Friday. Equities and gold also fell. The S&P 500 closed Friday’s cash session down 0.94% from Monday’s open and the Nasdaq Composite down 2.27%. On weekend futures they sat down 0.74% and 1.87% by Sunday. Gold fell 2.87% to $3,886, including a 3.27% drop on Friday alone. Brent rose 1.11% to $111.84, the only tracked asset up on the week. Events of the Week Binance loses $6.36B in the largest hack on record Binance’s hot wallets were compromised at about 4:05pm ET on Thursday, a loss of about $6.3B in assets. Binance suspended withdrawals and, for a time, deposits. Its initial investigation pointed to a compromised laptop, with additional points of breach found since. It has found no evidence that wallet private keys leaked. The FBI attributed the theft to North Korea’s TraderTraitor unit, and Chainalysis and TRM Labs agree. Binance says it will cover all losses and reports about 95% of affected assets replenished. Tether, Circle and Ripple froze funds, with about $3B frozen on-chain in total. Circle alone froze $823M. Withdrawals reopened in phases on Sunday, starting with BTC, then ETH and BSC. About 15 networks are live. ICE plans to bring Hyperliquid perps to the US On Thursday, ICE signed a definitive agreement with Trade[XYZ] to become the exclusive operator of US-regulated versions of its Hyperliquid-based perps across crypto, equities, commodities and FX, and took a minority stake in Trade[XYZ]. The retail venue will run separately from ICE's institutional futures and clearing business, with customers reaching it through FCMs, including ICE's joint venture with OKX. Nothing launches until regulators approve it. Stan Druckenmiller disclosed he is a Trade[XYZ] investor, and Elon Musk replied "interesting." HYPE rose as much as 17% on Thursday and closed about 4% below its all-time high. PURR traded 111K options contracts, more than six times its 30-day average. On Saturday ICE deleted its X post on the deal and reposted it hours later with more conditional wording: the companies now "plan to bring" the perps, "subject to regulatory approvals." The press release stayed up unchanged. HYPE dipped on the deletion and recovered after the repost. Fed holds 10 to 2 with two hawkish dissents The Fed held rates at 3.75% to 4.00% on Wednesday, as Polymarket priced at 95%. Beth Hammack and Lisa Cook dissented in favor of a 25bp hike, and it was Cook’s first dissent. Warsh gave no forward guidance and said politics played no role in the decision, six days before the midterms. December hike odds sit at 70% against 77% last issue. Q3 GDP printed at 3.4% annualized on Thursday, above the 3.3% GDPNow estimate and the 3.0% consensus. Core PCE rose 0.3% m/m and 3.1% y/y, in line. Strategy: preferred vote passes, CFO leaves Preferred holders approved daily dividend accrual with 99.3% in favor. STRC moves to daily accrual from November 1, and STRF, STRK and STRD follow on January 1. STRC's rate stays at 12%. Q3 net income was $19.5B, almost all of it an unrealized fair-value gain on BTC, while software revenue fell 3%. Strategy has repurchased 20.98M STRC shares for $2.04B. CFO Andrew Kang leaves on November 5, and MSCI publishes its final list on November 11. Elsewhere: Coinbase Q3 revenue was $1.22B, down about 35% y/y. It returned to a GAAP profit on a $715M unrealized crypto gain, and the stock fell about 2% after hours. It also disclosed a vendor breach that exposed customer contact details. DTCC’s tokenization service went live with JPMorgan and Citi. Google launched MPC crypto custody for banks. Treasury Secretary Bessent said crypto regulation will move ahead “with or without Congress.” Volatility, Positioning and Leverage BVIV closed at 42.14 on Monday, up from 41.13 at last issue's close. Its 30-day range is 37.37 to 44.68, and the high sits above the October 14 CPI-day high. Deribit's BTC DVOL drifted from 38.79 at Monday's open to 37.26 by Wednesday while traders waited on the FOMC. It jumped to 41.99 at Thursday's close, hit intraday highs of 42.27 on Thursday and 44.25 on Friday, and closed Sunday at 40.28, up 3.8% on the week. Aggregate futures open interest is at $137.5B, against $138.3B last issue, down 0.6%. Dollar open interest held flat while crypto prices dipped, so total coin-denominated open interest rose. Aggregate coin-denominated BTC open interest is 680K, against 671K last issue. Liquidations totaled $2.82B for the week, and longs took $2.08B of it, 74%. Shorts were hit first, with $256.9M liquidated on Tuesday and Wednesday as BTC rallied into the FOMC. Longs were then flushed, losing $1.71B on Thursday and Friday, more than last issue’s $1.51B across Thursday to Saturday. Binance alone accounted for $1.35B of the week’s total, about half. BTC ETFs Reverse on Friday as ETH Outflows Deepen BTC and ETH ETFs lost $633.8M combined, against +$80.5M last week. BTC: -$202.4M. Flows ran positive for four straight days: $110.3M Monday, $176.0M Tuesday, $137.3M Wednesday and $17.2M Thursday. Friday then lost $643.2M, the largest single-day outflow since June 25 (-$691.7M). It was the first session after BTC closed below the $78.1K level we flagged last issue, 7% under its 20-day high, where ETF flows have historically flipped from inflows to outflows. BTC hit its weekly low of $76.3K the same day. For the week, IBIT took in $176.9M while every other fund combined lost $379.3M. For October, IBIT sits at +$932.1M and the rest at -$1,448.0M, leaving the month at -$515.9M, the first outflow month since June. Year-to-date flows are +$453.9M, down from +$656.3M a week ago and a 2026 peak of +$3.20B on May 6. ETH: -$431.4M. This is the fifth consecutive outflow week and the third largest of 2026, behind -$600.7M (week of January 19) and -$542.2M (week of October 5). Friday was the largest daily outflow since October 7 (-$155.7M). Since September 28, ETH ETFs have lost $1.65B, up from $1.22B last issue. October lost $1.61B across 19 of 22 sessions, the largest monthly outflow since launch in July 2024, ahead of November 2025 (-$1.42B). Year-to-date flows turned negative on Friday at -$30.9M, down from +$400.5M a week ago and +$1.62B on September 25. ETHA has not posted an inflow in 24 sessions (20 outflow days, four flat), -$1.43B in total; its last inflow was $15.4M on September 28. It lost $391.1M this week. FETH was the only fund with inflows, taking in $63.1M, all of it Monday to Thursday. Read on the Market It was a chaotic week. The market went from the high of the Hyperliquid x ICE announcement to the biggest hack in history, both on the same Thursday. Add a hawkish FOMC, potential US-Iran escalation and midterms that look set for a Democratic victory, and BTC still fell only marginally more than the Nasdaq. It’s still holding above the 50 week moving average that currently sits at 75.5K. The first few months after a midterm have historically been choppy to slightly bearish for BTC, but it has been higher 12 months later every time. Cautious optimism is the approach we’re taking. History favors BTC on a 12-month horizon, but expect near-term volatility, especially if the war escalates and the AI trade keeps weighing on risk assets. Key Events for the Week Ahead Tuesday, November 3 US: midterm elections. Results come in overnight into Wednesday and open the lame-duck window for CLARITY. Australia: RBA decision. A 25bp hike to 4.85% is expected. Wednesday, November 4 US: ADP payrolls and ISM services. Thursday, November 5 UK: BoE decision, 7am ET. A hike to 4.00% is expected, with a 7 to 0 to 2 vote split forecast. Friday, November 6 US: October jobs report, 8:30am ET. September added 29,000 jobs and unemployment was 4.2%.(Consensus expectations: For fiscal 2027 Q1 (event date 2026-12-07), consensus expects EPS of 2.1 and revenue of USD 10.158 million.)

85/100·AShort+40

meme11/2meme

@Polymarket bots -> ai Reply to @Polymarket: JUST IN: OpenAI reportedly plans to rebrand data centers as "AI compute campuses" in an effort to improve public perception amid growing public backlash.

20/100·CNeutral

news11/1news

📌 Binance钱包疑遭接管，2亿USDC被转出 Binance 标签钱包 0x38aa…b200 向新创建的 SingleOwnerMSCA 代理 0xce43…b946 单笔转出 2 亿 USDC。该笔交易由无标签第三方 0x1e49…4ff2 直接调用 Binance 钱包合约发起，触发「第三方签名操控钱包（EIP-7702 委托或私钥被接管）」告警；该代理昨日由 Polymarket 测试账号创建后，已累计收到 Binance 约 10 亿美元 USDC，呈逐笔加码的测试—盗取模式。高度疑似私钥泄露/被盗。 ethereum · tx

72/100·B+Short

meme11/1meme

Chainlink Adoption Update 🔗 Recently, there were 8 integrations of the Chainlink standard across 5 services and 3 different chains. Users include @Anchorage, @further, HKGX, Hanwha Investments & Securities, @Polymarket, @SPGlobalRatings

72/100·B+Long

meme10/31meme

@Polymarket ok we need to evaluate ai safety because how are govt. agencies casually letting employees install agents on devices without clear guardrails... ? Reply to @Polymarket: JUST IN: Accenture employee allegedly ran an unauthorized Claude AI agent inside a secure Pentagon system for 2 months before it was discovered.

10/100·CNeutral

news10/30news

Compromised Software Caused Polymarket To Pause Trading. Some Users Said Funds Had Been Stolen..
Polymarket temporarily halted international trading after a breach involving third-party software reportedly led to $2.65 million in cryptocurrency theft from users' wallets.

85/100·AShort

POLYMARKET

BREAKING: Marco Rubio now projected to leave the Trump administration before year-end as reports emerge of a potential 2028 presidential bid. 59% chance. 🔗 https://polymarket.com/r/Rubio

Binance, Polymarket seek Polygon hard fork to recover $6.8M in stolen crypto

78% chance of another Fed rate hike by end of year. https://poly.market/EHYWN4Z Reply to @Polymarket: JUST IN: Trump declares "what's happening at the Federal Reserve is a disgrace."

6% chance China leads the AI race by end of year. https://poly.market/6STBToH Reply to @Polymarket: BREAKING: Oracle cancels $7,000,000,000.00 AI chip deal with Chinese tech giant Tencent following pressure from Trump administration. —Financial Times

Midterm Election Trading on Kalshi and Polymarket Lags Prediction Market Boom

21% chance Trump renames an ocean. https://poly.market/3tgTm0K Reply to @Polymarket: BREAKING: Trump reveals he's giving "serious thought" to renaming the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool to Trump Reflecting Pool.

ANNOUNCING: The first Polymarket Perps Trading Competition. $50K paid out to the top 50 traders on Polymarket Perps, with 3× boosted scoring on Anthropic pre-IPO ($⁠ANT) Live now through Nov 16. Join here: https://polymarket.com/r/perps-comp

@Polymarket bots -> ai Reply to @Polymarket: JUST IN: OpenAI reportedly plans to rebrand data centers as "AI compute campuses" in an effort to improve public perception amid growing public backlash.

Chainlink Adoption Update 🔗 Recently, there were 8 integrations of the Chainlink standard across 5 services and 3 different chains. Users include @Anchorage, @further, HKGX, Hanwha Investments & Securities, @Polymarket, @SPGlobalRatings

Compromised Software Caused Polymarket To Pause Trading. Some Users Said Funds Had Been Stolen..Polymarket temporarily halted international trading after a breach involving third-party software reportedly led to $2.65 million in cryptocurrency theft from users' wallets.

Compromised Software Caused Polymarket To Pause Trading. Some Users Said Funds Had Been Stolen..
Polymarket temporarily halted international trading after a breach involving third-party software reportedly led to $2.65 million in cryptocurrency theft from users' wallets.