PRECIOUS-Gold lackluster ahead of inflation data as oil prices rise
75·ALong
o
oi_change9/8market
OL/USDT OI 5min Down 7.63% $421K dropped to $389K, Price -7.58%, Long Liquidation
0·-Neutral
p
price_change9/8market
OL/USDT 180s Down 5.39% $0.005232 dropped to $0.004950
0·-Neutral
o
oi_change9/8market
OL/USDT OI 5min Up 7.28% $393K rose to $421K, Price 4.73%, New Longs Entering
0·-Neutral
p
price_change9/8market
OL/USDT 180s Up 5.32% $0.004922 rose to $0.005184
0·-Neutral
n
news9/8news
NEW with @AlbertoNardelli
— European and US officials are resigned to Russia’s war in Ukraine continuing into next year, acknowledging the latest Witkoff-Kushner peace initiative made no headway with Putin
— Putin is intent on stepping up attacks on Ukraine through the winter, testing its resistance and the resolve of Kyiv’s allies, according to European officials familiar with the matter
— Putin showed no sign of softening his positions despite recent US signalling to Moscow that new ideas are needed to revive stalled peace talks, the officials said
— Russia’s plan for the next six months is to intensify strikes on Ukraine’s power and heating infrastructure to try to make life unbearable for civilians, and to step up hybrid attacks and political interference in Europe to try to undermine support for Kyiv, one of the people said
— Putin has bet that he can emerge next spring with a stronger hand while keeping Russia’s increasingly strained economy above water, the person said. Trilateral talks may resume after Russia’s State Duma elections but are unlikely to move the dial. Serious negotiations are unlikely until at least next year, said another person
— Putin used the Witkoff-Kushner visit to project strength domestically ahead of the Duma elections, one of the people said. He kept the US delegation waiting until evening before meeting them, leaving Witkoff and Kushner to have an hours-long lunch with Putin envoy Kirill Dmitriev at a Moscow restaurant, the person added
— Ukraine’s allies must respond by prioritising supplies of air-defence interceptors to help Kyiv defend itself, the people said. The UK and others began to do so today, committing to providing Ukraine with more Patriot missiles before winter
Stocks are under pressure Tuesday as oil prices rose to six-week highs, rising for a third straight day, after Iran and the U.S. exchanged strikes over the weekend.
Ukraine steelmaker Metinvest’s bonds tumble after missile strike shuts plant
85·ALong
n
news9/8news
Top Overnight News
Yemen's Tehran-backed Houthis attacked four cities in the south of U.S. ally Saudi Arabia on Tuesday, wounding more than 70 people and setting oil installations ablaze in what appeared to be a major expansion of the six-month-old Middle East war. They used drones and missiles to strike a Saudi airbase in the southern city of Khamis Mushait, and targets belonging to Saudi Arabia's state oil company in nearby Abha, Najran on the Yemeni border and Jazan, a major Red Sea port city that houses a large refinery and power plant. Reuters
The war in Iran has now cost U.S. consumers $100 billion in higher energy prices, and the bill is rising another $1 million about every two minutes, per a real-time estimate from Brown University as of Monday morning. Inflation shows up across the entire economy, and the recent surge in diesel prices threatens to have a dramatic impact on freight and travel in the weeks and months to come. Axios
In offices across the military and in the intelligence community, there have been recent quiet discussions about cutting the number of people and facilities typically stationed in the Middle East if the Trump administration succeeds in ending the Iran conflict. CNN
New Canadian tariffs targeting roughly $20 billion in U.S. imports officially snapped into place on Tuesday, the latest escalation in an increasingly costly trade war that has ensnarled two longtime allies. NYT
Japanese workers’ nominal wages rose at the fastest pace in nearly three decades on the back of strong corporate earnings and a tight labor market, in data likely to keep the Bank of Japan on course for further monetary tightening. BBG
Two hawks on the Bank of Japan's monetary policy board are calling more strongly for the central bank to accelerate its interest rate increases, pushing it to do more to rein in inflation before their terms end next July. Nikkei
China’s export growth accelerated in August, swelling its trade surplus near $806 billion for the year. Its surplus with the US surged almost 44% to more than $29 billion. BBG
China's car exports stayed robust in August as BYD and other automakers shipped a record number of vehicles overseas, in sharp contrast to a sluggish domestic market where their sales fell for the 11th month in a row. Passenger vehicle exports jumped 77.5% from a year earlier to 894,000 units in August, easing from an increase of 88.2% a month earlier. Reuters.
Goldman raised its oil price outlook by $5 a barrel, forecasting Brent at $85 by December and $80 in 2027 on expectations Middle East shipping disruptions will persist. BBG
90·A+Long
n
news9/8news
Iran-Backed Houthis Launched a Large-Scale Attack Against Saudi Arabia. Oil Is Nearing $100 Again.. Riyahd said that more than 70 people have been wounded in the strikes.
90·A+Long
n
news9/8news
Russian drone and missile strikes on Ukrainian capital kill 2 people, ending pause for U.S. talks
85·ALong
n
news9/8news
JUST IN: Solana RWA holders cross 400K for the first time
400K+ holders, up from under 10K in January 2025 https://t.co/fr3R7RZCIU
75·ALong
n
news9/8news
The moment the US President’s peace envoys left, Putin launched another massive, horrific attack against Kyiv, damaging residential areas and killing at least two people.
His ballistic missiles speak louder than his words on diplomacy. Strike after strike on residential buildings brings him no closer to winning this war—it is nothing but senseless terror.
This proves that no decisions by our allies can be put on hold. Every delay is measured in lives.
Every interceptor provided to Ukraine now is a saved life. Missiles in stocks, including those nearing their expiry date, should work to protect Ukrainian skies.
It is also time to follow Germany’s lead and close all “Russian houses” in Europe. Russian influence networks cannot be allowed to continue operating while Russia refuses to end its war of aggression.
We urge our allies to act and increase pressure on the aggressor. Pressure on Moscow advances diplomacy—it does not obstruct it. Stronger pressure brings peace closer.
85·ALong
n
news9/8news
The moment the US President’s peace envoys left, Putin launched another massive, horrific attack against Kyiv., damaging residential areas and killing at least two people.
His ballistic missiles speak louder than his words on diplomacy. Strike after strike on residential buildings brings him no closer to winning this war—it is nothing but senseless terror.
This proves that no decisions by our allies can be put on hold. Every delay is measured in lives.
Every interceptor provided to Ukraine now is a saved life. Missiles in stocks, including those nearing their expiry date, should work to protect Ukrainian skies.
It is also time to follow Germany’s lead and close all “Russian houses” in Europe. Russian influence networks cannot be allowed to continue operating while Russia refuses to end its war of aggression.
We urge our allies to act and increase pressure on the aggressor. Pressure on Moscow advances diplomacy—it does not obstruct it. Stronger pressure brings peace closer.
Remembrances of 9/11 have begun and will rightly accelerate into Friday, the 25th Anniversary of that awful day when Islamist fanatics brought their war to us.
Hard to imagine the military, Bureau and FBIc CIA and IC are not already on the highest alert as well as every police, sheriff and private security force in the country.
Iran spent 47 years exporting terror and Quds Force expertise and personnel. Hezbollah has operated in more than 40 countries around the world. The IRGC and all its tentacles would like nothing more than to kill Americans this week and indeed through the weeks approaching the election as they think mayhem will hurt President Trump (and Prime Minister Netanyahu?)
Have not seen stories on this but can’t imagine many folks on protection of the homeland and its people on vacation this week.
- EIP-8141 may allow Ethereum users to pay for gas with stablecoins by sometime next year (very interesting - link below)
- $QQQ at $718.96
- Oil at $92.72 and lots of attention on crack spreads
- Gold at $4,405.40
- Total crypto market cap at $2.765T
- My beloved $FXN up almost 200% from spring lows - to $28.19(!) (still insanely undervalued though!)
- Hunter Biden to apparently release a memecoin on Wednesday called $LAPTOP, with part of supply airdropped to wallets that lost money on $TRUMP and 30% of supply to be burned if Democrats win the 2028 election
- Also... odds of Democrat sweep in November have risen to 52%
- $PONS, $ZEC, and $ENA all getting lots of positive attention on the TL (link below)
- Copper hits ATH
- Variational still most anticipated airdrop (link below)
- Stacks $STX to launch self-custodial Bitcoin staking
- Biggest bond bear market in US history continues... with $TLT (long-duration US bond ETF) averaging -7.65% per year the last 5 years, while conversely $QQQ (stonks) averaged +13.82% per year during that time
- (Related) 30 year fixed rate mortgages in the US are averaging 6.71% right now, down from high of 7.79% and up from 2.65% in 2021
- Above issue (yields and thus mortgages at record highs - since mortgage rates track long-duration US bond rates) is a very bullish setup for US real estate imho, at least residential (definitely not office) and at least in states people want to move to... As a result I still have significant exposure to $JOE (FL landholding + development company with huge holdings in the Panhandle/Bend section of FL) as my main RE exposure
- Also re: the above... I think the odds on Polymarket re: the Fed raising vs cutting rates are WAY WAY off (and thus asymmetric) and therefore I am seriously considering throwing a bit of money on bets that they somehow actually cut rates by EOY. The payoffs are absolutely insane proportionally and I can still 100% see it happening depending on how things go. Consensus is the opposite though with the bond market pricing in an 88% chance they RAISE by end-of-year...
- Also re: the above... I thought Trump's post on Truth Social over the weekend was quite shocking, where he seemed to openly threaten the Fed... saying (again, directed toward the Fed): "LOWER THE RATE OR I'LL STOP TRADING WITH COUNTRIES WITH WHICH WE HAVE A DEFICIT..." - which is quite startling and perhaps blackpilling to consider the President and Fed are openly at war to this degree... but it seems like Powell and his ilk who are still on the board are refusing to lower rates as Trump (and presumably Warsh) want... very fascinating situation that really brings up a lot of questions about how much control over the Fed the Executive Branch is supposed to have in the US...
- Also lots of talk about security and OpSec after Bold losing all his on-chain funds... tbh I remain a huge fan of just having all your on-chain crypto on a dedicated $200 Chromebook (or several) with multiple handwritten seed phrases cut in half and kept in multiple secure locations. Then if you are managing a defi protocol or something and need to sign all the time create a multi-sig. Or if you're degening on-chain and doing lots of transactions just separate your long-term holdings from that wallet. And if you have serious wealth in crypto diversify between on-chain and off-chain and various chains/counterparties/etc.
Conclusion
That is everything lads!
Remember to get jacked and tan for the $ETH $10k party! 💪
-and lift weights while watching the sun set! see pic below :)