- EIP-8141 may allow Ethereum users to pay for gas with stablecoins by sometime next year (very interesting - link below)
- $QQQ at $718.96
- Oil at $92.72 and lots of attention on crack spreads
- Gold at $4,405.40
- Total crypto market cap at $2.765T
- My beloved $FXN up almost 200% from spring lows - to $28.19(!) (still insanely undervalued though!)
- Hunter Biden to apparently release a memecoin on Wednesday called $LAPTOP, with part of supply airdropped to wallets that lost money on $TRUMP and 30% of supply to be burned if Democrats win the 2028 election
- Also... odds of Democrat sweep in November have risen to 52%
- $PONS, $ZEC, and $ENA all getting lots of positive attention on the TL (link below)
- Copper hits ATH
- Variational still most anticipated airdrop (link below)
- Stacks $STX to launch self-custodial Bitcoin staking
- Biggest bond bear market in US history continues... with $TLT (long-duration US bond ETF) averaging -7.65% per year the last 5 years, while conversely $QQQ (stonks) averaged +13.82% per year during that time
- (Related) 30 year fixed rate mortgages in the US are averaging 6.71% right now, down from high of 7.79% and up from 2.65% in 2021
- Above issue (yields and thus mortgages at record highs - since mortgage rates track long-duration US bond rates) is a very bullish setup for US real estate imho, at least residential (definitely not office) and at least in states people want to move to... As a result I still have significant exposure to $JOE (FL landholding + development company with huge holdings in the Panhandle/Bend section of FL) as my main RE exposure
- Also re: the above... I think the odds on Polymarket re: the Fed raising vs cutting rates are WAY WAY off (and thus asymmetric) and therefore I am seriously considering throwing a bit of money on bets that they somehow actually cut rates by EOY. The payoffs are absolutely insane proportionally and I can still 100% see it happening depending on how things go. Consensus is the opposite though with the bond market pricing in an 88% chance they RAISE by end-of-year...
- Also re: the above... I thought Trump's post on Truth Social over the weekend was quite shocking, where he seemed to openly threaten the Fed... saying (again, directed toward the Fed): "LOWER THE RATE OR I'LL STOP TRADING WITH COUNTRIES WITH WHICH WE HAVE A DEFICIT..." - which is quite startling and perhaps blackpilling to consider the President and Fed are openly at war to this degree... but it seems like Powell and his ilk who are still on the board are refusing to lower rates as Trump (and presumably Warsh) want... very fascinating situation that really brings up a lot of questions about how much control over the Fed the Executive Branch is supposed to have in the US...
- Also lots of talk about security and OpSec after Bold losing all his on-chain funds... tbh I remain a huge fan of just having all your on-chain crypto on a dedicated $200 Chromebook (or several) with multiple handwritten seed phrases cut in half and kept in multiple secure locations. Then if you are managing a defi protocol or something and need to sign all the time create a multi-sig. Or if you're degening on-chain and doing lots of transactions just separate your long-term holdings from that wallet. And if you have serious wealth in crypto diversify between on-chain and off-chain and various chains/counterparties/etc.
Conclusion
That is everything lads!
Remember to get jacked and tan for the $ETH $10k party! 💪
-and lift weights while watching the sun set! see pic below :)
75·ALong
m
meme9/7meme
Crypto + Macro Stuff I'm Looking At Today
...
- Tradfi markets closed today for Labor Day
- CPI and PPI inflation data coming out this week
- EIP-8141 may allow Ethereum users to pay for gas with stablecoins by sometime next year (very interesting - link below)
- $QQQ at $718.96
- Oil at $92.72 and lots of attention on crack spreads
- Gold at $4,405.40
- Total crypto market cap at $2.765T
- My beloved $FXN up almost 200% from spring lows - to $28.19(!) (still insanely undervalued though!)
- Hunter Biden to apparently release a memecoin on Wednesday called $LAPTOP, with part of supply airdropped to wallets that lost money on $TRUMP and 30% of supply to be burned if Democrats win the 2028 election
- Also... odds of Democrat sweep in November have risen to 52%
- $PONS, $ZEC, and $ENA all getting lots of positive attention on the TL (link below)
- Copper hits ATH
- Variational still most anticipated airdrop (link below)
- Stacks $STX to launch self-custodial Bitcoin staking
- Biggest bond bear market in US history continues... with $TLT (long-duration US bond ETF) averaging -7.65% per year the last 5 years, while conversely $QQQ (stonks) averaged +13.82% per year during that time
- (Related) 30 year fixed rate mortgages in the US are averaging 6.71% right now, down from high of 7.79% and up from 2.65% in 2021
- Above issue (yields and thus mortgages at record highs - since mortgage rates track long-duration US bond rates) is a very bullish setup for US real estate imho, at least residential (definitely not office) and at least in states people want to move to... As a result I still have significant exposure to $JOE (FL landholding + development company with huge holdings in the Panhandle/Bend section of FL) as my main RE exposure
- Also re: the above... I think the odds on Polymarket re: the Fed raising vs cutting rates are WAY WAY off (and thus asymmetric) and therefore I am seriously considering throwing a bit of money on bets that they somehow actually cut rates by EOY. The payoffs are absolutely insane proportionally and I can still 100% see it happening depending on how things go. Consensus is the opposite though with the bond market pricing in an 88% chance they RAISE by end-of-year...
- Also re: the above... I thought Trump's post on Truth Social over the weekend was quite shocking, where he seemed to openly threaten the Fed... saying (again, directed toward the Fed): "LOWER THE RATE OR I'LL STOP TRADING WITH COUNTRIES WITH WHICH WE HAVE A DEFICIT..." - which is quite startling and perhaps blackpilling to consider the President and Fed are openly at war to this degree... but it seems like Powell and his ilk who are still on the board are refusing to lower rates as Trump (and presumably Warsh) want... very fascinating situation that really brings up a lot of questions about how much control over the Fed the Executive Branch is supposed to have in the US...
- Also lots of talk about security and OpSec after Bold losing all his on-chain funds... tbh I remain a huge fan of just having all your on-chain crypto on a dedicated $200 Chromebook (or several) with multiple handwritten seed phrases cut in half and kept in multiple secure locations. Then if you are managing a defi protocol or something and need to sign all the time create a multi-sig. Or if you're degening on-chain and doing lots of transactions just separate your long-term holdings from that wallet. And if you have serious wealth in crypto diversify between on-chain and off-chain and various chains/counterparties/etc.
Conclusion
That is everything lads!
Remember to get jacked and tan for the $ETH $10k party! 💪
-and lift weights while watching the sun set! see pic below :)
0·-Neutral
n
news9/7news
Thoughts on the Liquid whitehat incident:
Background:
- Liquid is a Bitcoin L2/sidechain, launched by Blockstream in 2018. 4,000 BTC from their bridge was taken by a whitehat yesterday (and then mostly returned).
- You can think of the Liquid network as running a fork of Bitcoin Core (called Elements). Elements added new features such as confidential transactions, other assets, BTC peg in/out, and new opcodes.
- The bug seems not to be a cryptography one but in integration logic. Bug A was there for years, was recently patched, and the patch likely introduced Bug B, which was exploited.
- I’m glad this was a whitehat, and most of the funds have been returned. Could’ve been much worse if an actual attacker.
Learnings:
- There should’ve been rate limits in place both at the swap service and peg out. There likely were some limits that didn’t trigger. Such rate limits and time delays can drastically reduce the potential damage.
- It’s clear that we’re in the age of AI-driven security wars. The new capability of these models is forcing us to discover bugs that went undetected for years. Overall, this will be a net positive, even if short-term painful.
- Both the earlier Zcash bug and this Liquid one reinforce how keeping Bitcoin simple and hardened is the right call. If anything, we should be pushing for Bitcoin ossification.
Stacks security:
- I got several questions about Stacks. We also have a bridge for sBTC. The exact Elements bug isn't applicable here, as Stacks doesn’t use Elements. For any bridges or DeFi apps, security should be priority #1. Stacks devs actively run frontier AI models (both open-source and from frontier labs) on our repos. We also have active bug bounty programs with Immunefi and others. Our regular security audit reports are also available publicly.
- Even with the emphasis on security, AI model testing, audits, etc, for over a year, Stacks devs have been pushing in the long-term direction of self-custodial solutions. The Bitcoin bonds/staking upgrade keeps the BTC deployed fully self-custodial (no bridge or smart contract risk). Further, new approaches to self-custodial lending and other areas are in the R&D stage right now.
Summary:
Running the absolute latest AI models on sensitive repos is job #1 for crypto devs. We’ll see a short-term increase in discovered bugs but get hardened systems and healthy practices in the long term.
Stacks is now heavily focusing on self-custodial solutions for bitcoin capital markets, while relentlessly doing defensive security testing/audits on existing infra.
The Liquid incident should be a wake-up call to take AI threats extremely seriously, even at Bitcoin Core (we’ve done some work on this). We should ossify Bitcoin Core and keep it as simple as possible; all new bitcoin functionality can be built on layers like Stacks. Forward!
75·AShort
n
news9/7news
How does this turn into a PvE cycle?
To be clear, I don't actually think we're really there. I don't believe retail is fully here like they were back in 2021/2024 and I think that it's still mostly the same hot ball of money moving around. There are signs that some normies are coming onboard w/ social apps and some of these onchain ceilings, but I don't think we've really seen insane mania yet. It feels a bit like the early stages of a bull market....like October 2020 or November 2020 or something around there.
I actually don't think we'll see insane mania like we did back in 2021 or 17 (I hope I'm wrong there). A cycle equal to 2024 would be great to see but I do think that onchain won't be as insane as we saw back then (again, I hope I'm wrong).
With that said, what would actually change this? What would turn us to actual PvE (player vs. environment), where normies are coming in huge and buying our bags? (I think any combination of the below can happen fwiw)
IMO:
1) BTC cracks ATH with strength and is on a moon mission to 200k+. This one is obvious and doesn't need much explanation. Maybe this cycle is different where we don't actually need bitcoin to do huge numbers since retail flow has mostly always been about altcoins and the market is just structurally different as time has gone by. But even still, this is the easiest answer and it's been the solution for every past bull market. BTC bottoms and extra new money flows in.
2) AI x Crypto is real. That money flows into crypto from a narrative perspective and we get a lot of flow from wall street and AI investors. We saw glimpses of this in 2024, where the AI agent wave with GOAT and ai16z brought about a lot of tech junkies who were experimenting onchain. Ofc all of this was larp but it brought in real outside money. AI has been the story for all of 2025/26 in stocks and those have had insane moves - if even a fraction of that $ comes over, we will be partying.
3) Robinhood is real and we actually get tons of retail flow. This is the one that makes the most sense to me personally and the relationship is clear to me. There are dozens of posts written about this already but the stock x meme combo is really intriguing and I wouldn't be surprised to see the next wave of interesting DeFi tokens spawn from this chain / cycle. We haven't had true innovation in that area since 2020 IMO, let's see if that changes.
4) Something new gets built that brings about huge retail investors. In the past, this was sold as 'cutting edge tech' and being on the frontier. These days, I think that most of the tech happens onchain (investable tech that is) and everything else (perps, privacy, prediction markets, stables) are bigger infrastructure projects that will mostly take over the past ones (big L1s, AAVE forks, etc). I actually don't have the answer for this one because I don't see it yet but there probably will be something. In 2024 it was more pumpfun and all of the onchain madness, in 2021 we had a variety of things (economic stimulus, gaming, new L1s, etc). Innovation has largely diminished with each cycle IMO (which makes sense because anything new or exciting was thought of in previous cycles). But there's probably going to be something.
If we do get PvE, where does that $ flow? IMO onchain. Nobody is really interested in buying these huge fdv infrastructure tech projects right now. Maybe that changes and maybe we see an insane bid for Monad or something along those lines...but I don't personally see it. People are in crypto to get rich and I think everyone knows the gig at this point and they aren't interested in buying this high fdv dogshit anymore. Unless something materially changes with these token structures, I'm mega bearish on all of those.
Should be a fun cycle regardless. Still think we're in the early stages
55·BLong
m
meme9/6meme
Solana will win paired memecoins if the community leans into its structural advantages:
- More assets with more liquidity (pair with stocks, but also other tokens like btc/zec, metadao tokens, ai coins, insti assets, cesto baskets, perps or prediction positions, etc)
- More builders means more experimentation and shots on goal (just wait…..)
- Better market structure & liq will help coins sustain momentum longer and withstand arb thrashing
First inning still
0·-Neutral
n
news9/5news
I’ve been asked a lot: Why is Midnight live on only one market? why can’t Morpho Vaults allocate to it yet? why only one chain? Answers below:
1. Vaults Morpho Vaults hold ~$5B in deposits but can only deposit in Blue markets, not Midnight markets yet. Enabling vaults to allocate to Midnight takes one tx from the DAO, but opens the door to significant capital entering a protocol that launched just a few weeks ago. We want curators and users to become familiar with Midnight, and give the ecosystem time to develop the tooling needed to support those allocations. → Expect Vault activation Q4.
2. More Chains & Markets The initial deployment gives us a focused environment to observe behaviors, improve the experience, and prepare for broader adoption. → Expect Ethereum in the coming days, with more chains to follow. → Expect a few more markets next week, followed shortly by all Morpho Blue markets.
3. More Features What launched onchain is the Midnight core contract. The app, SDK, API, and supporting contracts will progressively expose more of its capabilities. We’ve already shipped Lend Callbacks and Secondary. Many (many) more functionality will follow, including support for bespoke offers, multi-collateral, rolling, rehypothecation, receivables, undercollat, etc…
4. But preserving a slow pace matters Midnight introduces a new completely new lending paradigm. Its flexibility creates new amazing possibilities, and the ecosystem needs time to understand them and build the tooling, bots, and data infrastructure around them. We’ve shipped multiple protocols over the years. One lesson has remained constant: there is no shortcut to security. We want everything live, everywhere, as much as you do. But each step should give us the confidence to take the next, appreciate your patience!
65·B+Long
t
twitter9/5meme
quote: Glass Lewis still recommends voting against directors when their boards don’t meet its “gender diversity” targets.
VanEck policy requires PMs to explain to the ETF board every time we override a Glass Lewis recommendation.
So I keep writing some version of: “We don’t discriminate based on gender.”
Good to see the proxy-advisor duopoly getting some scrutiny. | The SEC has issued an enforcement action against ISS (the co that controls half the proxy voting outsource mkt and is known to push ESG on corporations) for not complying w a subpoena and refusing to hand over documents etc.
0·-Neutral
n
news9/5news
Advertising my public, free channel again where I document my entries and exits in real time
https://t.me/maskedthoughts
Hit all the recent CEX runners like DASH, CHIP, 4, FF etc
I make my trade thesis very concise and to the point, promise it will be worth your time
75·AShort
m
meme9/3meme
quote: Any data provided to anyone should be presumed public.
All the bits and pieces are aggregated, and the deltas over time are tracked.
The data, and deltas, tell your story.
Your story is used to predict paths, and then used to create desired outcomes.
Freedom is only possible when your data is shielded and unavailable. | I really recommending reading this.
In summary, a company which does ID verification for in-person interactions (hotels, car rentals, ID verification for alcohol or marijuana, etc) has some how exposed over 153,000,000 drivers licenses for people in the United States and Canada.
It is a catastrophic data breach, probably one of the worse I've ever seen. If you're in the United States and have traveled, gotten a hotel, purchased marijuana or alcohol, there is a high probability you're in this.
Unlike other breaches, this includes a photo of the person (from the license), making verification you've identified the person significantly easier.
This poses a significant threat to celebrities (musicians, YouTubers, streamers, adult entertainers, actors, etc), politicians, lawyers, wealthy people (CEOs, investors, people of public interest), Law Enforcement Officers, etc
Krebs himself, and several other security researchers, have already confirmed they're in the data leak.
tl;dr gah damn dawg this company is going to be sued into oblivion
https://krebsonsecurity.com/2026/09/fbi-probes-service-selling-153m-drivers-licenses/
95·A+Neutral
n
news9/2news
State Street w/ largest seeded ETF launch *ever* today…
State Street SPDR UC Investments 90/10 Endowment Strategy Index ETF (UCBG)
Launched w/ *$2.5bil*
UC Investments manages University of California’s retirement, endowment, etc. https://t.co/NnAt44EcxM
95·A+Long
n
news9/2news
State Street w/ largest seeded ETF launch *ever* today…
State Street SPDR UC Investments 90/10 Endowment Strategy Index ETF (UCBG)
Launched w/ *$2.5bil*
UC Investments manages University of California’s retirement, endowment, etc. https://t.co/NnAt44EcxM