@MikeFritzell Who on earth is Paul Kedrosky? @grok
Reply to @MikeFritzell: “CXMT has said they want to basically add an entire Samsung’s worth of supply in 18 months. They want to go from No. 6 in the market to No. 1. It’s insane how much supply is coming online in 2027.” - Paul Kedrosky, via Grant’s Interest Rate Observer
Exclusive: China's CXMT plans to start production of HBM3E, an advanced type of high-bandwidth memory chip used with AI processors, despite as little as 20% of the chips it makes being usable https://reut.rs/4inpLaG
72/100·B+Short+3
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news10/28news
China’s Cxmt to Start Production of Advanced Hbm3e AI Memory, Sources Said
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news10/28news
Chinese Chipmaker Cxmt Joins Shanghai Composite Index
72/100·B+Long
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meme10/28meme
Woah, stellar earnings from and AI market projections...
1. SK Hynix: "Memory supply shortage to persist through 2030".
2. There's the $4.8B operating profit beat ($62.8B vs. ~$58B est)... 80% operating margins.
So you had:
- Revenue: $78.84B vs. $74.02B
- Operating profit: $62.80B vs. $58.00B
- Operating margin: 79.7% vs. 78.3%
With forward projections of
3. "Our DRAM and HBM volumes through 2029 are effectively sold out."
4. Signed LTAs covering 50%+ of 2027–2028 capacity, while retaining pricing flexibility
5. The company intends to fulfill its commitment to return 50%+ of cumulative FCF for 2025-2027
6. "We have included deposits and other practical enforcement mechanisms" (LTAs have actual enforcement)
7. "We expect the profitability gap between HBM and conventional DRAM to narrow significantly" (hello broader memory industry)
8. SK Hynix announced $75B in shareholder returns (dividends/buybacks) for CY2026.
I'm not sure what there isn't to like here?
You have a memory company just printing... demand visibility super high from enforceable commitments... and now they're returning that via dividends/buybacks.
Quoted @aleabitoreddit: Oh look… more memory durability evidence for $MU and co.
Following the news of $GOOGL, other CSPs such as Alibaba, Tencent, Bytedance, and are now negotiating memory LTAs with $SKHY and Samsung.
Some customers are reportedly pushing for 10 year contracts as well, into 2035.
“As U.S. companies move to secure memory supplies first, Chinese tech giants are joining the race.”
Source: Maeil News
Don't you think it's a bit strange for your hyperscalers (especially Chinese big tech) to seek LTAs 10 years out…
If there's claims of CXMT + YMTC DRAM/NAND overflooding in 2028-2029?(Historical earnings: For fiscal 2026FY (period ended 2026-09-03), Micron reported basic EPS of 75.38, diluted EPS of 74.33, net income of USD 84.969 billion, and revenue of USD 133.188 billion.
Consensus expectations: For the upcoming 2026Q4 event, consensus expects EPS of 32.5625.)